Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)
Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030
Outside of NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) recent share price going stratospheric, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $.07. Today, Amazon stock trades for $214.30, which means that stock is up over 219469.67% since May 1997, turning every $1000 invested into $2.196 million today. The only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next 1, 5, and 10 years and beyond. Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do). Key Points in this Article: Future stock performance hinges on Amazon’s growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition. Amazon’s revenue grew 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30.42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next 5 years at 4.5x. If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps. Recent Amazon Stock Updates and News 11/14/2024- Amazon has introduced a new mobile-only store, Amazon Haul, which is designed to appeal to shoppers seeking budget-friendly products. This new store offers a wide range of products priced under $20. 11/13/2024- Amazon is closing down its free video streaming service, Freevee. The content previously with the service will migrate over to Amazon Prime Video. 11/12/2024- Amazon confirmed that a recent cyberattack has exposed sensitive data from its employees. The breach was facilitated through a third-party property management vendor. The threat actor, known as “Nam3L3ss”, is a prominent figure in the cybercrime world. They leaked over 2.8 lines of Amazon employee data on BreachForums, alongside data from 25 other major organizations. 11/11/2024- Amazon is in the process of developing a new tool for its delivery drivers: smart eyeglasses. These glasses are intended to help drivers with turn-by-turn navigation to hopefully shave time off deliveries. 11/8/2024- Amazon’s stock price dipped slightly today, falling 0.8% during midday trading, reaching as low as $208.29. Trading volume was much lower than usual, with only about 7.8 million shares changing hands compared to the average daily volume of over 41 million shares. 11/7/2024- Amazon’s recently approved delivery drone service has begun in the Phoenix metro area. The MK30 drones can deliver packages weighing 5 pounds or less, but only during daylight hours. 11/6/2024- Recent speculation has suggested that Amazon’s new five-day in-office mandate is a veiled attempt to downsize its workforce or fulfill a deal with local governments. However, CEO Andy Jassy has emphasized that the company’s decision is unrelated to either theory. 11/5/2024- The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has approved Amazon’s new delivery drones. These new drones are smaller and can fly beyond the visual line of sight of pilots. 11/4/2024- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) denied Amazon’s request to draw more power from a nearby Pennsylvania nuclear plant. This decision could hinder efforts by Amazon and other tech giants to secure additional energy from nuclear sources to fuel their growing AI operations. 10/31/2024- Amazon released its third-quarter financial report today, reporting numbers beyond Wall Street expectations. The company reported a revenue of $158.9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $157.2 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.43 compared to the $1.16 anticipated by Bloomberg analysts. Amazon’s Recent Stock Success Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017. Share Price Revenues* Net Income* 2014 $19.94 $89.0 ($.241) 2015 $15.63 $107.0 $.596 2016 $32.81 $136.0 $2.371 2017 $37.90 $177.9 $3.03 2018 $58.60 $232.9 $10.07 2019 $73.26 $280.5 $11.59 2020 $93.75 $386.1 $21.33 2021 $163.50 $469.8 $33.36 2022 $167.55 $514.0 ($2.72) 2023 $85.46 $574.78 $30.42 *Revenue and Net Income in Billions In the last decade, Amazon’s revenue grew about 540% while its net income moved from losing money to 30.42 billion in profits this past year. The ride up wasn’t always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance. 3 Key Drivers of Amazon’s Stock Performance E-Commerce Success: While Covid brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won’t be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn’t as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Azure and Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOGL) Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses. Advertising: Amazon exits 2023 with a $47 billion advertising business that grew 24% in 2023. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line – Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business – which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits. Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2025 The current consensus 1-year price target for Amazon stock is $220.00, which is a 2.66% upside from today’s stock price of $214.30. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.37 “Buy” rating. 24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month forecast projects Amazon’s stock price to be $225. We see AWS continue its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analyst expectations, particularly in the 4th quarter of 2024 with more streaming ad impressions being sold. Amazon (AMZN) Stock Forecast Through 2030 AWS: Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google. E-Commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits. Advertising: Amazon’s advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually. Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for “new bets” the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost)and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we’ll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030: Revenue Net Income Total Enterprise Value 2024 $638 $48.56 $1.93 2025 $710 $62.13 $2.12 2026 $788 $79.68 $2.19 2027 $867 $96.53 $2.29 2028 $957 $114.17 $2.39 2029 $1,049 $136.69 $2.5 2030 $1,149 $131.39 $2.6 *Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions Amazon’s Share Price Estimates 2025-2030 How Amazon’s Next 5 Years Could Play Out We expect to see revenue growth of just over 11% and EPS of $5.74 for 2025. We expect the stock to still trade at a similar multiple next year, putting our estimate for the stock price for Amazon at $287 in 2025, which is 33.92% higher than the stock is trading today. Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $371, after revenue estimates to come in around 10% higher year-over-year. With an EPS of $7.42 and in our opinion the last year Amazon trades near its current P/E of 50, 2026 could mark the year Amazon starts trading at a more mature valuation closer to 35 times earnings. That would represent a 73.12% gain over today’s share price of $214.30. Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase not to be as pronounced as more tempered growth is expected from Amazon and even with earnings estimates of $8.80 per share, the stock price target for the year is $308.00. That is a 17% year hit from the previous year, but still up 43.72% from today’s stock price. When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect Amazon to continue growing its top line at 10% but be more efficient and operating margins to grow. In 2028, we have Amazon’s revenue coming in around $957 billion and an EPS of $10.34 suggesting a stock price estimate at $361.90 or a gain of 68.88% over the current stock price. 24/7 Wall Street expects Amazon to continue its 10% revenue growth again and to generate $12.30 per share of earnings. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, the stock price in 2029 is estimated at $430.50, or a gain of 100.89% over today’s price. Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030 We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $370 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 72.96% higher than the current stock price, marking a double in Amazon’s stock price today of $214.30. Year Price Target % Change From Current Price 2024 $226.50 Upside of 5.69% 2025 $287.00 Upside of 33.92% 2026 $371.00 Upside of 73.12% 2027 $308.00 Upside of 43.72% 2028 $361.90 Upside of 68.88% 2029 $430.50 Upside of 100.89% 2030 $370.65 Upside of 72.96% Is Your Money Earning the Best Possible Rate? (Sponsor) Let’s face it: If your money is just sitting in a checking account, you’re losing value every single day. With most checking accounts offering little to no interest, the cash you worked so hard to save is gradually being eroded by inflation. However, by moving that money into a high-yield savings account, you can put your cash to work, growing steadily with little to no effort on your part. In just a few clicks, you can set up a high-yield savings account and start earning interest immediately. There are plenty of reputable banks and online platforms that offer competitive rates, and many of them come with zero fees and no minimum balance requirements. Click here to see if you’re earning the best possible rate on your money! The post Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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