APP surges 50% in 3 months as Axon 2 boosts ad performance and financials amid rising demand in mobile advertising.
AppLovin NASDAQ: APP was one of two much-loved stocks over the recent past that markets dumped on June 9. This was in reaction to news coming from S&P Global NYSE: SPGI.
AppLovin's S&P 500 snub is temporary; fundamentals remain strong with robust profitability and rapid revenue growth, especially in AI-driven advertising. The company fits all the criteria for an S&P 500 entry, with a market cap 6x the $20.5 billion requirement. Q2 headline numbers may look weak due to the Apps business sale, risking short-term volatility even as the core ad business grows strongly.
AppLovin remains a top S&P 500 inclusion candidate despite Friday's snub; the imminent pullback next week is a buying opportunity. The company's adtech business and AppDiscovery tool are driving robust revenue and earnings growth, with CY25 EBITDA estimate up to $4.2B (+80%). Massive $1B share buyback and accelerating free cash flow per share further enhance the stock's attractiveness and value.
The online trading platform and advertising technology company were seen as contenders to join the index.
S&P Dow Jones Indices made no changes to the S&P 500 index late Friday, snubbing Robinhood Markets and AppLovin.
I reiterate my 'Buy' rating on AppLovin, expecting S&P 500 inclusion to be a game-changing catalyst for the stock. Even without S&P inclusion, APP boasts phenomenal growth, strong Q1 FY2025 results (ads +81% YoY), and a smart divestiture of its Apps business to focus on high-margin ads. The company sees limited impact from potential tariffs and views lower app store fees as a tailwind, enabling customers to increase ad spend on its platform.
APP's AI engine Axon 2 has quadrupled ad spend and reignited mobile gaming, fueling explosive growth in revenues and earnings.
Declining volatility surrounding tariffs and a tame inflation trend suggest more gains are on the horizon.
AppLovin (APP) has been one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com users lately. So, it is worth exploring what lies ahead for the stock.
APP's pivot to e-commerce and web advertising segments has driven their renewed growth opportunities indeed, as observed in the accelerating top-line growth & richer profit margins. If anything, we expect the management to continue delivering high double digits growth ahead, as they launch the self-service advertising platform from Q2'25 onwards. On the other hand, despite the richer Free Cash Flow generation, APP has reported a rapidly deteriorating balance sheet attributed to the overly aggressive share retirement cadence.
AppLovin's Q1 2025 ad revenue rose 71% YoY to $1.16B, with Axon 2.0 boosting monetization efficiency. Advertising segment EBITDA climbed 92% YoY to $943M at an 81% margin, outperforming all major ad-tech peers. The divestiture of its Apps segment removes a low-growth drag, simplifying operations and unlocking higher long-term ROIC potential.