Armour Residential REIT Inc. (ARR)
Nebius Q4: Path To Potential $180 Share Price
Nebius delivered Q4 revenue up 547% YoY and achieved positive EBITDA, signaling robust AI-driven growth and operational execution. NBIS ended 2025 with $1.2B ARR, beating guidance, and projects $7B–$9B ARR by 2026, with a focus on recurring revenue metrics. Core adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 24% in Q4; management guides for a 40% group adjusted EBITDA margin by 2026, supported by upfront client payments.
Varonis Systems: This Is Now A Wait And See Story (Rating Downgrade)
Varonis Systems is downgraded to hold as SaaS ARR growth decelerates and retention rates fail to inflect higher. Q4 revenue grew 9% y/y, with SaaS ARR up 32% y/y ex-conversions, but margins weakened and net retention remains at 110%. Management guides FY2026 SaaS ARR growth ex-conversions to slow further, challenging the thesis of accelerating growth post-migration.
Palo Alto Networks Q2 Preview: Why I Remain Cautious And Reaffirm My Sell Rating
Palo Alto Networks remains a sell as soft guidance, risk factors, and a premium valuation outweigh recent operational strength. Q1 FY 2026 delivered steady 16% YoY revenue growth and robust profitability, but next-gen ARR growth decelerated from 32% to 29%. Guidance for Q2 and FY 2026 signals deceleration in revenue, RPO, and next-gen ARR growth. This hints at potentially weakening demand.
Nebius: Ignore The Volatility - Follow The Capacity
A ~30% pullback resets entry into a high-conviction AI infrastructure story, with demand, pipeline strength, and hyperscaler commitments still firmly intact. Revenue volatility reflects supply timing, not demand weakness, as sold-out capacity and strong ARR shift recognition forward rather than destroy value. Execution risk remains but is increasingly de-risked by booked ARR, hyperscaler contracts, and improving visibility into capacity coming online.
Netskope: Scope For Growth To Continue At This Pace
Netskope receives a buy rating, driven by its proprietary NewEdge infrastructure and accelerating ARR growth. NTSK's edge-based SASE platform delivers superior security and near-zero latency, supporting robust AI and digitalization trends. ARR growth re-accelerated to 34% y/y in Q3 2026, with strong net retention and significant upsell potential.
Progress Software: ARR Buildup As Company Reloads For Its Next Deal
Progress Software remains a "Buy," leveraging disciplined M&A and strong integration to drive alpha amid market uncertainty. PRGS demonstrates organic ARR growth and robust 39% pro forma operating margins, qualifying as a "Rule of 40" company. The portfolio's diversification across DevOps, databases, and collaboration tools enables cross-selling and business stability.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Stays On Hold As Funding Costs Remain In Focus
ARMOUR Residential REIT gets its hold rating reaffirmed, agreeing with the latest Wall Street hold consensus. Although recent revenue growth impressed, there is still the topic of funding costs for a mortgage REIT, its competitive position among peers, and margins. Despite a nearly +16% fwd dividend yield and monthly payouts, readers should also consider growth history and payout ratios.
Nebius: A Gift That Will Keep On Giving
Nebius Group N.V. has explosive revenue and ARR growth fueled by AI infrastructure investments. The NBIS ARR is projected to reach $7–$9B by the end of next year but comes at the expense of shareholder equity, a headwind you will face. Heavy losses and ongoing cash burn are expected for NBIS through 2026.
Sell Alert: 3 REITs That Look Too Risky Right Now
I like a lot of REITs, but not all of them. Quite a few of them are overleveraged, poorly managed, and own troubled assets. I present three popular REITs to avoid.
Cellebrite: Solid Setup Going Into Next Year
Cellebrite remains a "Buy" as federal demand rebounds and platform adoption accelerates, supporting a strong long-term growth outlook. The federal segment returned to year-over-year growth in Q3, removing the primary bear case and confirming demand was delayed, not lost. Inseyets migration and rapid cloud/SaaS ARR growth—Guardian cloud ARR up >100% for five quarters—position CLBT for outsized ARR acceleration into 2026.
Nebius Stock: The Market Is Missing A Huge 2026 ARR Growth Surge
Nebius Group (NYSE:NBIS) is nearing EBITDA profitability, driven by rapid ARR growth and AI hyperscaler contracts. NBIS targets 2025 ARR of $900M–$1.1B and 2026 ARR of $7B–$9B, reflecting hyperscaler deal momentum. Valuation models indicate 61%–159% upside, but significant CapEx, dilution, and leverage risks require close monitoring.
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