ASML heads into Q1 2026 earnings with strong growth forecasts as EUV demand, AI-driven chip complexity and a hefty backlog boost revenue visibility.
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ASML Holding N.V. remains a Buy with a raised price target of $1,643.21, implying 11% upside. Recent Middle East turmoil has not led to material downward revisions in ASML's revenue or EPS estimates. EBITDA and free cash flow estimates for 2026–2028 have increased by 7.2% and 6%, respectively, supporting long-term growth.
The latest trading day saw ASML (ASML) settling at $1, representing a +1.95% change from its previous close.
ASML Holding N.V. is set to report Q1 earnings amid strong AI-driven chip demand but trades at a premium valuation above $1,400 per share. Analysts expect Q1 revenue growth of 14–15% and EPS growth of 13%, with potential for outperformance given ASML's history of beating consensus. Gross margin guidance for Q1 is 51–53%, down from 54% last year, due to product mix and weaker servicing, but management targets 57% by 2030.
ASML Holding's ASML upgrade and service business has been a strong contributor to its Installed Base Management (IBM) segment throughout the past year. In 2025, ASML's IBM sales increased 26% to EUR 8.2 billion, driven by higher service and upgrades of its wafer fabrication equipment business.
ASML shares fell 2.6% on Tuesday after a group of bipartisan US lawmakers introduced legislation last week that could further restrict the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker's already constrained sales to China. The bill, if passed, would extend export controls to include less advanced chipmaking tools that Chinese manufacturers have so far been permitted to buy.
ASML shares fell after U.S. lawmakers proposed a law that would add further semiconductor export curbs on China. The restrictions would target ASML's deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine, which Chinese companies have so far been able to access.
ASML stock is up 23.1% YTD on AI-driven chip demand, but its premium valuation and rising competition raise questions on upside potential.
AI chip demand keeps climbing, but chipmakers hit a brick wall without the right tools to crank out the next generation of processors.
Investors looking for ways to find stocks that are set to beat quarterly earnings estimates should check out the Zacks Earnings ESP.
A cross-party group of U.S. politicians have proposed a law to impose further restrictions on exports of computer chipmaking equipment to China, affecting companies such as ASML and China's top chipmakers.