KeyBanc Capital Markets trimmed its price target on AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) to $295 from $330 following the company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares.
AeroVironment shifts from a 'strong buy' to 'hold,' after Q3 FY26, reflecting margin pressure and integration challenges post-BlueHalo acquisition. Q3 revenue surged 143% YoY to $408M but missed consensus; gross margin collapsed to 24%, and a $151M goodwill impairment drove a $156.6M net loss. Guidance was sharply reduced: FY26 revenue is now $1.85–$1.95B (from $2B), and EPS is cut to $2.75–$3.10 (from $3.40–$3.55), driven by SCAR program uncertainty.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Although the revenue and EPS for AeroVironment (AVAV) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended January 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
AeroVironment (AVAV) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.64 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.68 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.3 per share a year ago.
The drone maker said it now expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 to $3.10 for the fiscal year, compared with $3.40 a share to $3.55 a share previously.
AVAV expands counter-drone defenses with Titan RF systems, AI-driven sensing and kinetic interceptors as militaries boost demand for C-UAS tech.
The global landscape is experiencing a significant increase in geopolitical instability, which is acting as a powerful catalyst for the defense industry. More than just a cyclical rise in spending, this moment marks a crucial inflection point.
Geopolitical Tailwinds: U.S.-Iran tensions create a goldmine opportunity for AeroVironment, Inc. drones, resulting in the $1.1B funded backlog (up 134%) & driving top-line growth to double (Q4 expected +106%). Contract Visibility Headwinds: Uncertainty plagues the $1.4B SCAR contract (US Space Force), which was reopened for competitive bidding. Winning it would double the $1.1B backlog, but losing it would crash. Gross Margin Pressure: BlueHalo integration slashed gross margins from 40% to under 20%. But AVAV expects Q3/Q4 inflation back to the "high 30s" by Q4, driven by higher-margin product revenues.
AVAV faces a key test as demand for Switchblade systems and the BlueHalo acquisition boost growth, while supply-chain issues and cost pressures cloud the outlook.
The latest trading day saw AeroVironment (AVAV) settling at $220.56, representing a -2.61% change from its previous close.
Get a deeper insight into the potential performance of AeroVironment (AVAV) for the quarter ended January 2026 by going beyond Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining the estimates for some of its key metrics.