AeroVironment has sold off sharply amid worries about a key contract loss; it's now dropped 50% or more four times in a decade. Concerns are real; the BlueHalo acquisition is starting to look like a whiff, the company disclosed compliance issues, and valuation remains aggressive. But history suggests that investor optimism toward the industry will always bring buyers back to AVAV, and there isn't enough here to suggest that trend will change.
KeyBanc Capital Markets trimmed its price target on AeroVironment ( NASDAQ:AVAV ) to $295 from $330 following the company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares.
AeroVironment shifts from a 'strong buy' to 'hold,' after Q3 FY26, reflecting margin pressure and integration challenges post-BlueHalo acquisition. Q3 revenue surged 143% YoY to $408M but missed consensus; gross margin collapsed to 24%, and a $151M goodwill impairment drove a $156.6M net loss. Guidance was sharply reduced: FY26 revenue is now $1.85–$1.95B (from $2B), and EPS is cut to $2.75–$3.10 (from $3.40–$3.55), driven by SCAR program uncertainty.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Although the revenue and EPS for AeroVironment (AVAV) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended January 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
AeroVironment (AVAV) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.64 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.68 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.3 per share a year ago.
The drone maker said it now expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 to $3.10 for the fiscal year, compared with $3.40 a share to $3.55 a share previously.
AVAV expands counter-drone defenses with Titan RF systems, AI-driven sensing and kinetic interceptors as militaries boost demand for C-UAS tech.
The global landscape is experiencing a significant increase in geopolitical instability, which is acting as a powerful catalyst for the defense industry. More than just a cyclical rise in spending, this moment marks a crucial inflection point.
Geopolitical Tailwinds: U.S.-Iran tensions create a goldmine opportunity for AeroVironment, Inc. drones, resulting in the $1.1B funded backlog (up 134%) & driving top-line growth to double (Q4 expected +106%). Contract Visibility Headwinds: Uncertainty plagues the $1.4B SCAR contract (US Space Force), which was reopened for competitive bidding. Winning it would double the $1.1B backlog, but losing it would crash. Gross Margin Pressure: BlueHalo integration slashed gross margins from 40% to under 20%. But AVAV expects Q3/Q4 inflation back to the "high 30s" by Q4, driven by higher-margin product revenues.
AVAV faces a key test as demand for Switchblade systems and the BlueHalo acquisition boost growth, while supply-chain issues and cost pressures cloud the outlook.
The latest trading day saw AeroVironment (AVAV) settling at $220.56, representing a -2.61% change from its previous close.