JPMorgan BetaBuilders MSCI US REIT ETF (BBRE)
BATS BATS Primary 
XMEX 
Rally In The Dark
U.S. equity markets rebounded this past week as the White House resumed negotiations with China following a major tariff threat, while investors focused on bank earnings that raised some eyebrows. Consistent with the "risk-off" theme that has prevailed amid the ongoing federal government shutdown with no resolution in sight, short-term Treasury yields receded to the lowest levels in three years. Buoyed by a dip in benchmark rates, real estate equities led the rebound this week after REIT earnings season began on a positive note with surprisingly strong industrial REIT results.
The State Of REITs: August 2025 Edition
After a strong June (+2.56%), the REIT sector recovery stalled in July (-1.17%) as REITs fell to a -6.42% year-to-date return. Micro cap REITs (-0.20%) outperformed in July while mid caps (-1.18%), small caps (-1.33%) and large caps (-1.55%) averaged slightly deeper negative returns. 60.65% of REIT securities had a negative total return in July.
Why Consider U.S. REITs Now?
Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.
The Bulls Are Back
U.S. equity markets surged to fresh record-highs as investors cheered a confluence of positive headlines: a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, productive trade talks, and progress on tax cuts. Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. destroyed a trio of Iranian nuclear facilities in a formidable and decisive show of force, eliciting a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Traders priced in additional rate cuts as tumbling oil prices and economic data that remains devoid of meaningful inflation prompted dovish dissents from several Fed officials.
The State Of REITs: June 2025 Edition
REITs saw a month of recovery in May (+2.08%), but still have a long way to go to get back into the black in 2025 with an average -7.33% return. Micro cap REITs (-0.73%) continued to struggle, while small caps (+4.28%), mid-caps (+1.83%) and large caps (+0.91%) saw gains. 62.58% of REIT securities had a positive total return in May.
Fed Ditches 'Data Dependent'
U.S. equity markets posted a second-straight week of declines after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it remains in "no rush" to ease its "modestly restrictive" policy stance. Raising questions on whether the Fed can continue to claim itself "data dependent," Fed Chair Powell dismissed recent economic data while doubling-down on forecasts of "meaningful" tariff-driven inflation. Benchmark interest rates ticked lower this week as traders digested the Federal Reserve's rate decision alongside a generally downbeat slate of economic data and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
The Drivers Behind REIT Dividend Growth
This post takes a closer look at the underlying mechanics that allow Realty Income and other high-quality REITs to grow their distributions over decades without compromising sustainability. While Realty Income's dividend shows the familiar stair-step pattern of monthly increases over time, what's most important is that this growth appears supported by a steadily rising AFFO base. One of the most reliable indicators of a REIT's health is its occupancy rate. This metric tells you what percentage of a REIT's total properties are currently leased and producing rental income.
2025 REIT Market Perspectives And A Look Ahead
A notable defensive rotation is underway this year, benefitting REIT stocks. The recipe that makes REITs a compelling investment today already contains two important ingredients – cheap valuations and positive fundamentals. With a macro backdrop starting to wobble, it's important to realize the steady, durable earnings that REITs offer.
The State Of REITs: March 2025 Edition
REITs bounced back (+1.77%) in February and now have a positive year-to-date total return (+0.79%) after the first two months of the year. Large cap (+4.58%), small cap (+2.00%) and mid cap REITs (+0.98%) performed well in February while micro caps (-1.55%) continued to badly underperform their larger peers. 64.97% of REIT securities had a positive total in February.
REIT Slope Adjustment Has Overshadowed Future Value Gains
Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.
Not All 2% Spreads Are Created Equal
Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.
What We're Watching This REIT Earnings Season
Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. Following a year-end tumble that lingered into early 2025, REITs enter earnings season with a bit of upside momentum as Treasury Yields eased from the cusp of two-decade highs. Largely immune from trade/tariff and AI-related risk, REITs are coming back into favor after three years of historic underperformance, which has driven valuations to unusually "cheap" levels.
