We take a look at the Q4 numbers from the Barings BDC. Barings BDC trades at a 15% discount to book, offers a 12.9% total dividend yield, and has a stable NAV over the last few years. Net investment income fell slightly over the quarter; base dividend coverage remains strong at 108%.
Dividend Cut Likely – In my opinion, SCM risks a dividend cut as NII fell below its $0.40 payout, with a 100%+ payout ratio raising sustainability concerns. Rising Credit Issues – SCM's credit quality declined, with non-accruals rising to 5.4% in 2024, causing a 19% NII drop and $15.7M in losses. Overvalued vs. Peers – Despite the risks, SCM trades at a premium on NAV & NII multiples; sell recommended.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending delivered a solid performance in 2024, growing both net and total investment income year-over-year despite a slight decline in the bottom line per share. NCDL's portfolio saw significant growth with $950 million deployed, focusing on first-lien investments and maintaining strong credit quality with minimal non-accruals. Despite a slight increase in leverage, NCDL's balance sheet remains robust, with no near-term debt maturities, strong liquidity, and strategic share repurchases.
Lower interest rates negatively impact BDCs' net investment income due to the floating rate nature of their loans tied to the Fed Funds rate. A typical BDC portfolio, with a debt to equity ratio of 1.0x, cannot fully offset lower rates through floating leverage. However, there are some ways to manage this situation.
Due to economic uncertainty and a disappointing quarter, I am downgrading Golub Capital BDC from a buy to a hold. Despite misses in the top and bottom lines, GBDC's credit rating upgrade and higher originations are positive signs for future performance. Management expects improved net investment income from higher originations and restructured borrowers, but economic volatility remains a risk.
Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIEN ) Q4 Earnings Conference Call March 31, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Tripp Sullivan - IR SCR Partners Peter Sack - Chief Executive Officer Martin Rodgers - Chief Financial Officer Dino Colonna - President Conference Call Participants Pablo Zuwanich - Zuwanich Associates Operator Good morning, and welcome to the Chicago Atlantic BDC Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.
BDC dividend investors, who want to avoid seeing their portfolio current income streams shrink have to be extra careful when picking BDCs. Largely due to unfavorable sector-wide conditions, many BDCs have already cut their dividends (just as I predicted). In my view, there are many more in line.
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the third week of March and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs saw a 2% total return this week, but March is shaping up to be the worst month since late 2023. A recent Bloomberg article discussed PSEC culture and outsider status.
This is my first BDC portfolio monthly performance review article. The good news is that the portfolio has done its job, outperforming the two BDC benchmarks - PBDC and BIZD. Yet, on an absolute basis, the portfolio is slightly down.
Ares Capital's diverse portfolio and strong dividend yield of 8.7% make it a stable and attractive investment for reliable supplemental income. Despite trading at a premium to NAV, ARCC's valuation is reasonable compared to peers, with low non-accrual rates and consistent capital allocation to new investment activity. ARCC's portfolio growth and strategic investments in senior secured debt provide downside protection and potential for capital appreciation.
Part 2 of this article compares GBDC's recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 11 other BDC peers. This includes a comparative analysis of GBDC's cumulative undistributed taxable income ratio, percentage of floating-rate debt investments, recent weighted average annualized yield, and weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings. GBDC's “base” dividend sustainability remains strong. When comparing/analyzing all metrics (including additional metrics not mentioned), GBDC is currently deemed to be appropriately valued as a Hold.
Capital Southwest offers a high dividend yield and strong underwriting but is riskier than larger peers like ARCC due to its size and business model. Despite solid fundamentals and attractive valuation, economic uncertainties suggest holding off on new investments in CSWC to avoid potential sharp declines. CSWC's diversified portfolio, primarily in first-lien senior secured loans, provides some protection, but the company remains vulnerable to economic downturns.