Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, says higher oil prices are hitting consumers and the economy hard, while the Fed is likely to raise rates despite a soft economy.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, while investors assessed supply risks after Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at its Yanbu port following an attack on its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.
Oil is increasingly calling the tune in global markets as rising energy prices make investors nervous.
Oil futures rose amid market pessimism about flows out of the Middle East following the outage of a key Saudi pipeline and the increased Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping.
Brent crude futures rose to $107.59—but remained below Monday's intraday high—as the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and recent Houthi territorial gains kept supply concerns elevated.
Oil and 10-year Treasury yields are moving in near lockstep, with their correlation at its strongest since 2019. Higher oil could drive inflation and Treasury yields higher, tightening financial conditions and pressuring stocks and consumers.
Oil gained. Stabilizers in the oil market appear to be weakening with China's crude oil imports edging higher and non-OPEC+ supply outside the Middle East likely to only come online in 2027, CBA said.
Oil buyers are paying much more to get a barrel of crude oil immediately as the Iran conflict threatens global supplies.
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on Monday that a ban on U.S. oil or fuel exports would be unlikely to help lower energy prices for consumers amidst the Iran war.
Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate's front-month contracts rose on Monday after Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline, citing damage cause by drone attacks.
Weekend attacks erased Friday's oil selloff as WTI and Brent jumped 3%. The Saudi pipeline outage and postponed Oman meeting keep supply risk high.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade as Middle East frictions fuel geopolitical risk premiums.