Eurozone inflation has given EUR/CAD a reason to stay bid, but perhaps not yet a reason to break much higher. The stronger-than-expected rise in core CPI to 2.5% yoy and the acceleration in services inflation to 3.5% yoy have effectively cemented expectations for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike next week.
EUR/CAD extended its near term rally today as increasingly hawkish rhetoric from senior European Central Bank officials continued pushing markets toward pricing a June rate hike, while falling oil prices added renewed pressure on Canadian Dollar. The pair resumed its rebound from 1.5941 and is now approaching the key 1.6148 resistance zone, with broader momentum increasingly favoring further upside.
EUR/CAD has remained trapped in a broad sideways range after rebounding to 1.6247 in early April, with neither Euro nor Canadian Dollar able to establish a convincing directional advantage. The pair's hesitation reflects a market caught between fading oil-driven momentum on the CAD side and uncertainty over how aggressively ECB will tighten policy through the summer.