Oil prices extended their sharp decline on today as markets grew increasingly confident that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could eventually restore normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped back into the $86-87 region, with the break below the psychologically important $90 level reinforcing the view that traders are beginning to unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Eurozone inflation has given EUR/CAD a reason to stay bid, but perhaps not yet a reason to break much higher. The stronger-than-expected rise in core CPI to 2.5% yoy and the acceleration in services inflation to 3.5% yoy have effectively cemented expectations for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike next week.
EUR/CAD extended its near term rally today as increasingly hawkish rhetoric from senior European Central Bank officials continued pushing markets toward pricing a June rate hike, while falling oil prices added renewed pressure on Canadian Dollar. The pair resumed its rebound from 1.5941 and is now approaching the key 1.6148 resistance zone, with broader momentum increasingly favoring further upside.
EUR/CAD has remained trapped in a broad sideways range after rebounding to 1.6247 in early April, with neither Euro nor Canadian Dollar able to establish a convincing directional advantage. The pair's hesitation reflects a market caught between fading oil-driven momentum on the CAD side and uncertainty over how aggressively ECB will tighten policy through the summer.
EUR/CAD holds gains near 1.6050 as Euro advances on hawkish ECB tone
EUR/CAD falls toward 1.5900 as risk aversion weighs on Euro
EUR/CAD remains below 1.1700 due to increased risk aversion
EUR/CAD steadies below 1.6050 as improved oil prices lift Canadian Dollar
EUR/CAD holds losses near 1.6200 as Canadian Dollar gains on risk-on mood
EUR/CAD caps near 1.6200 as Euro struggles due to risk-off mood
EUR/CAD rises to near 1.6100 due to hawkish ECB tone
EUR/CAD holds gains above 1.6050 as oil prices eases