The Carlyle Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CG ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 6, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Daniel F. Harris - Partner & Head of Public Investor Relations Harvey Mitchell Schwartz - CEO & Director John Christopher Redett - CFO & Head of Corporate Strategy Conference Call Participants Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Benjamin Elliot Budish - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Brian Bertram Bedell - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Brian J.
Although the revenue and EPS for Carlyle (CG) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Get a deeper insight into the potential performance of Carlyle (CG) for the quarter ended June 2025 by going beyond Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining the estimates for some of its key metrics.
Financial software provider SS&C Technologies said on Monday it will acquire Carlyle's British fund network and data business Calastone for about 766 million pounds ($1.03 billion).
Carlyle Secured Lending's portfolio quality deteriorated in 1Q25, with non-accruals rising and net investment income dropping 25% year-over-year. The dividend payout ratio hit 100% (112.5% including supplemental), erasing the margin of safety and making the 12% yield unsustainable. The Company trades at a 17% discount to NAV, reflecting market concerns about credit quality and dividend sustainability; a dividend cut appears likely.
Despite recent financial declines, I remain bullish on CGBD due to its significant discount to NAV and attractive entry point. The closed merger should provide size, scale, and accretive benefits in upcoming quarters, likely improving financials and supporting price appreciation. CGBD's strong balance sheet, no debt maturities until 2028, and reduced leverage position it well for future opportunities.
The Diversified Energy Company PLC's (LSE:DEC, NYSE:DEC) new collaboration with Carlyle opens up further acquisition opportunities, stockbroker Stifel has highlighted. DEC on Tuesday announced it had secured a $2 billion investment deal with Carlyle, which is to provide the funds to support new acquisitions.
Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC, NYSE:DEC) has announced a $2 billion partnership with US investment group Carlyle, to expand DEC's footprint in the US gas and oil sector. Through a strategic partnership Carlyle's Asset-Backed Finance (ABF) business will invest up to $2 billion in existing proved developed producing assets, to be operated and serviced by DEC.
CG is set to collaborate with C to expand fintech-focused asset-backed finance through a new strategic alliance.
CGBD features an 11.5% yield and trades at a 16% discount to NAV. The recent merger with CSL III increased portfolio size, improved first-lien allocation, and eliminated preferred stock dilution overhang. Despite a slight NAV decline and rising non-accruals, portfolio quality remains solid and returns are in line with the sector average.
Carlyle Secured Lending's fundamentals remain solid, but rising non-accruals and shrinking net investment income raise concerns about portfolio health and dividend sustainability. Despite a 21% price drop and a 12.4% dividend yield, I maintain a hold rating due to ongoing NAV declines and limited earnings coverage for distributions. The portfolio's first lien, senior secured focus, and floating rate exposure are positives, but higher rates are pressuring borrowers and increasing credit risk.
Carlyle Group offers value with shares 20% below highs, strong AUM growth, and a secure 3.2% dividend yield. Fee-based earnings are highly predictable, with $26B pending fee-earning AUM and credible 6% growth guidance for the year. Diversification into credit, insurance, and secondary markets boosts recurring revenue, with $99B in perpetual fee-earning AUM.