Markets have followed a predictable pattern since the United States-Iran conflict commenced. When the price of oil goes up, stocks go down and vice versa.
Prolonged U.S.-Iran conflicts and the latest earnings updates led us to see prevailing oil price forecasts—and the EPS projections for Chevron—as underestimates. Current oil price forecasts expect oil prices to fall back to the range of $74—$85 in 2027. CVX's EPS estimates based on these forecasts could underestimate its 2027 EPS by ~$4.5/share if oil averages $100.
Chevron (CVX) has been one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com users lately. So, it is worth exploring what lies ahead for the stock.
Chevron (CVX) concluded the recent trading session at $213.81, signifying a +1.91% move from its prior day's close.
Chevron's production is up, costs are down, and FCF is strong but ROIC lags. Read on to learn what's driving the disconnect.
Chevron NYSE: CVX sees Venezuela as a potentially significant source of low-cost production growth after negotiating revised commercial and legal terms that Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said made the country's resource base competitive within the company's global portfolio.
CVX's expanded Venezuela JVs target 600,000 barrels per day, adding growth potential as strong cash flow and Hess synergies boost flexibility.
Chevron is a direct beneficiary of the Iran war and the resulting higher commodity prices for oil, gasoline, diesel, and chemicals while global strategic reserves have fallen to critical levels. Project Kilby positions CVX to monetize Permian Basin natural gas by supplying dedicated power to a very large Microsoft AI data-center via a 20-year take-or-pay power supply agreement. The war with Iran is not likely to end any time soon and could last well into next year. As a result, Chevron could earn up to $15/share in FY26.
Chevron has surged more than 42% this year and is brushing against a 52-week high, but the real question is whether the fundamentals driving that run can hold at these prices or whether the easy money is already gone.
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Chevron has raised its dividend 39 straight years, but the real test was never a bull market in crude.
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