The EMB ETF is a popular and liquid option for investing in dollar-denominated emerging market bonds. The ETF's performance is influenced by both interest rate and credit risk. Current credit spreads are historically tight, limiting potential upside.
The NDA has retained power with a reduced majority, sparking concerns over potential policy shifts, but we remain cautiously optimistic. While we expect a continuation of the recent fiscal consolidation trend - aided by the buoyancy in tax collections and the higher-than-expected central bank dividends - we also acknowledge the risk of more populist stance given the new political dynamics.
The EMB has a lot of dollar-pegged exposures, so FX risks and carry trade pressures are avoided to a degree. Other countries benefit from implicit dollarisation, or are dollar-long economies, which limits FX risks on the debts. Even with countries that are reducing rates and are less dollarised, debt levels are relatively low, and country-level commodity exposures are solid. So no broad credit risks.
The iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF provides exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging market countries. EMB offers extreme diversification with exposure to over 50 sovereign entities and over 600 bonds, with a portfolio yield to maturity generally above 7%. EMB has underperformed some actively managed EM bond funds, and investors should question whether passive makes sense for this asset class.