I calculate a $268M intrinsic value for Evolution in the medium run, based on slightly recovering gas prices. That is $8.16/share. Evolution's management knows to buy counter-cyclical assets at depressed prices. Market fears have dropped the stock by 45%. Assuming no systemic shocks, Evolution will likely be paying down its debt while paying an 8.80% dividend yield.
The recent acquisitions have led to considerable growth opportunities in the conventional and unconventional business. Evolution Petroleum is transitioning from high-cost secondary recovery to conventional and unconventional business through small interest purchases. Recent $40 million purchase in Anadarko, Oklahoma marks a significant shift in the company's focus.
Investors need to pay close attention to Evolution Petroleum (EPM) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.