Etsy stock has underperformed the S&P 500 since I initiated my "hold" rating in May, where I expected the stock to face headwinds with GMS and profitability declining in Q1 FY24. Etsy is due to report its Q2 earnings on July 31, where revenue is expected to grow 1.7% YoY, while adjusted EPS is expected to decline 33% YoY to $0.98. However, management's commentary and guidance on GMS growth for the remainder of the year will be key, along with their projections for take rate and Adjusted EBITDA margin.
Etsy's Q1'24 earnings report disappointed due to a year-over-year drop in gross merchandise sales. Etsy, however, has a strong and profitable e-Commerce business with potential for a GMS recovery, especially in a lower-inflation world. Low earnings expectations and cheap valuation calculate to a favorable risk profile.
The Etsy marketplace, the flagship of Esty Inc., which also includes resale site Depop and musical instrument specialist Reverb, was founded in 2005 to connect buyers with makers, artists, designers and crafters selling their unique handmade, originally designed new or specially-selected vintage items.
As eCommerce titans Amazon, Temu and Shein expand their reach, Etsy is attempting to reclaim its niche by emphasizing its original mission to support artisans and crafters, but the fine print shows considerable wiggle room for less handmade products.
Etsy is overhauling the policies that govern its site to make clear to sellers and buyers what products belong on the platform. The changes come as Etsy faces pressure to compete with Amazon and emerging e-commerce players Temu and Shein.
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The stock market has been roaring higher since 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remain elevated as the Magnificent Seven stocks propel these indices to all-time highs.
I believe buying Etsy at 10x forward free cash flow is a fair entry point. Despite Etsy's significant debt, its substantial and stable free cash flow makes it an attractive investment. If Etsy reduces its debt, it could become an even more attractive acquisition target, boosting its overall valuation.
Not every stock is a winner, and it's important to know when to cut your losses. While it's normal for corporations to report bad earnings every once in a while, some earnings reports can shatter growth narratives and put investors in tough spots.
The tech sector is filled with stocks that outperformed the stock market. This sector also has a large presence in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.
Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY ) Bernstein TMT Forum and Strategic Decision Conference May 30, 2024 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Joshua Silverman - CEO Conference Call Participants Nikhil Devnani - Bernstein Nikhil Devnani All right. Good morning, everybody.
Etsy (ETSY) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?