Devon Energy is now a ~$50 billion upstream company, strengthened by the $28 billion Coterra acquisition and integrated assets. DVN targets $2 billion in synergies by YE-2027, driving improved FCF and capital efficiency, with $800 million quarterly FCF pre-merger. Post-merger guidance calls for 1.4 million barrels/day production, $4.9 billion capex, and up to 70% of FCF returned to shareholders.
Puig Brands remains attractive post-Estee Lauder M&A talks, with a robust portfolio and improving fundamentals. PUIG reported a 2025 net profit of €594M, EPS of €1.05, and free cash flow of €570M, supporting a 6.5% FCF yield. Low net leverage (0.35x EBITDA) and a disciplined 40% payout ratio position PUIG for further debt reduction and rising FCF per share.
B2Gold Corp. is positioned for potential multi-year FCF growth, targeting a 21% FCF/EV yield by 2028. The upside scenario hinges on four key events: a Mali permit, Goose Mine upgrades, prepayment rolloff, and Gramalote deferral. I initiate BTG with a Buy rating.
High-flying IPOs, momentum, high-beta, and growth are making it appear as though value is no longer in style. However, as famed value investor Seth Klarman said in a recent Bloomberg interview, value opportunities are always lurking in the background even in today's market.
Dividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) have what it takes?
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. is upgraded to Buy on strong FY26 results and a compelling 12% FCF yield. Handgun sales drove over 10% revenue growth to $523m, with robust brand strength enabling price increases without demand impact. SWBI repaid $60m in debt, reducing notes payable to $19m, and is positioned to return significant FCF to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
CRGY's stronger execution, cheap valuation and $1B 2026 free cash flow outlook sharpen its value case, but debt and commodity swings remain risks.
Verizon remains a compelling income investment, offering a 6.2% yield, robust free cash flow, and accelerating operational leverage under new leadership. VZ delivered its strongest margin and EPS growth in years, with Q1 FCF up 4% YoY despite restructuring costs and management reaffirming $21.5B+ FCF guidance for 2026. Operational transformation is evident: churn is falling, cost efficiencies via AI are materializing, and broadband cross-sell and AI infrastructure present significant growth runways.
Krispy Kreme remains a hold as turnaround progress is evident, but valuation uncertainty persists. Q1 marked the first positive free cash flow since IPO, with adjusted EBITDA up 38% YoY and 260 bps margin expansion. FY 2026 guidance targets $1.25–$1.35B net revenue, $140–$150M adjusted EBITDA, and over $15M free cash flow.
Growth continues to be a standout performer, though elevated interest rates and geopolitical friction continue to add a dose of uncertainty. With that, value exposure is still a vital component for constructing a balanced portfolio.
At US$80–100 WTI, Surge is thriving. 16.9% FCF yield at strip, C$346M cash flow, and a 26% guidance raise to C$335M AFF, with C$5M/month buybacks underway. June 1 update strengthens the investment case. Management raised 2026 exit production guidance up to 24,000 boe/d, increased capital spending to C$175M, and now targets C$335M of AFF at US$80. At strip pricing, Surge offers a 16.9% FCF yield and around C$92M of shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. My PV10 is C$19.5 per share, implying 95% upside from today's price.
Elastic remains a deep value opportunity despite a recent 30% rally and strong post-earnings performance. ESTC's complex infrastructure software and consumption-based model insulate it from AI-driven risks impacting simpler, seat-based SaaS peers. Recent fiscal Q4 results exceeded expectations, with bullish forward guidance and growing backlog from AI-native customers.