Forestar Group is well-positioned to benefit from persistent residential housing shortage and a favorable interest rate environment, driving demand for residential lots and land sales. The company aims to double its market share to 5% by leveraging its national footprint and strategic relationship with D.R. Horton, but also with other builders too. Forestar's disciplined focus on return on equity and selective project underwriting enhances profitability and minimizes risk, ensuring high-quality developments.
Forestar missed top- and bottom-line estimates in the quarter. The company is building its inventory of lots ahead of an eventual recovery in the homebuilding market.
Forestar Group (FOR) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.89 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.93 per share a year ago.
Despite a high interest rate environment, recovery in demand for certain real estate categories and constrained supply poise Real Estate Development industry players like HHH, GRBK and FOR well for growth.
Forestar Group Inc. targets double digit returns through land acquisition with significant cash and expertise, supported by financing from D.R. Horton. Given the previous unlevered FCF growth, management outlook, planned land acquisition in 2024, and my previous assumptions, I expect FCF close to $192 million in 2025. FOR recently reported constrained lot supply in the United States, which, in my view, may benefit its business model.