For VanEck Gold Miners ETF, weak technical trading may be warning of another round of selling soon, with record low Ease-of-Movement readings a worry for bulls. I anticipate a further -20% to -30% correction in gold/silver miners, driven by credit contraction conditions in the economy and a possible bear market in equities generally. My fair value estimates for gold ($3600) and silver ($50–$55) suggest current prices are vulnerable to a significant pullback into early summer.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) earns a reiterated buy rating, supported by a compelling 11.2x P/E and robust EPS growth expectations. GDX has outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 YoY, despite recent volatility and a 20% pullback from February highs. Portfolio concentration is high, with 61% in the top 10 holdings and over three-quarters in non-US stocks, offering global diversification.
Gold's run over the past year has been one of those market moments that stops people in their tracks.
Gold prices enjoyed a steady upward march last year to notch a gain of 70% — the highest annual return in 45 years. After setting 53 straight all-time highs, advisors are rightly asking if the “easy money” has already been made.
Gold reached an all-time high near $5,400 following reports of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Neils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada.
To say that the gold rally has captured significant investor interest over the past few months would likely be no understatement. After all, the precious metal, much like its silver compatriot, is currently seeing its value pushed higher due to ongoing geopolitical worries.
Gold has always been one of the go-to assets when stomach-churning volatility forces queasy investors into safe havens. However, recent volatility has been challenging that safe haven narrative, and one of the drivers has been speculative trading activity in China ETFs.
Gold is glittering, and it is time to make the most of it. While last year was a strong year for the precious metal, and has started 2026 even stronger.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF has soared to all-time highs, but I remain bearish given technical and valuation concerns. GDX is highly concentrated, trades at 3.8x book, and the top ten holdings comprise 57.2% of assets, raising risk if gold prices reverse. Despite strong momentum, GDX appears technically overextended, with potential downside of 18–33% based on retracement and valuation scenarios.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) appears to have experienced a blowoff top, resembling the 2011, 1980, and 1974 peaks in precious metals. I believe the recent parabolic move in GDX, with a 300% gain since early 2024, signals the party is ending for gold/silver miners. Current price action and investor euphoria suggest a multi-year or even decade-long top is being outlined in 2026, making it prudent to sell on strength and/or avoid GDX for now.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF benefits from structurally elevated gold prices and disciplined capital allocation among major constituents. GDX's recent outperformance is driven by margin tailwinds - higher gold prices and cooling costs - not valuation expansion, with FCF yields now testing overvaluation territory. Despite supportive earnings, GDX remains highly sensitive to gold price movements; even minor gold pullbacks can pressure the ETF.