The iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF (ISTB) offers a low-risk, short-duration fixed income play amid expectations for lower rates in 2026. ISTB tracks the BBG US Universal 1-5 Year Index, with a portfolio duration of 2.6 years and a 4% SEC yield. The fund is predominantly investment grade (88% rated AA or better) and holds over 6,800 securities, with 52% in Treasuries.
Calming of credit spreads has restored performance despite upward yield curve translations being enduring. We worry about the remote risks to the USD currency status and the cost of capital implications. We also think that things could get ugly with tariffs still, and that credit spreads back to historical lows despite inflation risks from tariffs and limited pricing power is problematic.