The stock market has followed mid-term election-year seasonality reasonably well, and we should expect it to continue to do so. It suggests a low is due around March 13 and a high approximately March 20.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial shipping route that can impact international trade. Oil prices have already been spiking due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The materials sector of the S&P 500 has been the strongest of the index's 11 sectors since Feb. 27.
In Q4 2025, a wave of institutional investors, including hedge funds linked to Israel Englander's Millennium Management, accumulated significant positions in IVV, SPY, and QQQ, reinforcing broad conviction in S&P 500 exposure at a moment when many retail investors were growing cautious.
Oil markets brace for longer turmoil in the Gulf
This is a good time to take risk off the table — and these stock-market charts prove it.
Stocks in the semiconductor value chain were weak on Thursday.
6780 was breached over the past trading sessions, signaling that a larger correction is underway. However, the type of correction can allow for 7120 to be reached before we see a multi-month decline.
The S&P 500 finished the week at its lowest close since mid-December. The index finished the week with a loss of -2.0%, its largest in nearly five months, and is now 3.42% off its all-time high from January 27, 2026.
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) offers S&P 500 exposure with enhanced income via a covered call strategy. I expect a flat S&P 500 in 2026, making XYLD's 10.72% yield and buy-write approach appealing for income-focused investors. XYLD outperforms in flat or down markets but may lag during strong index rallies due to limited upside from call option overlays.
Iran and oil may have broken the stock market — but the cracks were already visible.
Lumentum and Coherent have market caps of more than $40 billion, well above the threshold for S&P 500 inclusion.