The Portfolio returned -4.62% ((gross)) and the S&P 500® Index returned -4.33% for the first quarter of 2026. Vertiv is an essential supplier of cooling, power management, and rack systems to AI data centers, with its orders backlog more than doubling on a year-over-year basis. NVIDIA announced that it would invest $2 billion in Lumentum to secure future capacity, further highlighting Lumentum's growing market power as a key provider of mission-critical components.
LITE raises Q4 FY26 guidance as AI infrastructure demand boosts cloud networking revenues and key optical components remain sold out.
Lumentum (LITE) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Presents at Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference Transcript
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had high praise today for Marvell, a maker of optical components that he said could become a $1 trillion company. And investors seem to be transferring those rosy feelings to other optical-components stocks.
Shares of Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) are up 20% in midday trading to around $190, snapping back hard from a Friday close of $158.41.
LITE's AI laser chip business gains steam with record EML shipments, surging 200G demand and expanding CPO opportunities supporting growth.
Lumentum Holding's purchase obligations have surged, signaling strong demand visibility and likely revenue acceleration as OCS systems and CPO laser backlog convert to sales in H2 2026 and FY27. Tight supply and sold-out demand in EMLs and lasers are worsening, supporting Lumentum's pricing power and a credible case for gross margin expansion over the next several quarters. Earlier, I had missed the financial impact of a $2B investment from Nvidia. This has significantly strengthened Lumentum's liquidity, reducing my risk concerns of large short-term convertible debt obligations.
Lumentum is initiated at a buy rating, driven by accelerating growth and critical positioning in AI data center infrastructure. They posted 90% YoY revenue growth in Q3, with gross margin and operating margin expanding by 12.7 and 21.4 percentage points, respectively. Q4 guidance calls for $960M-$1.01B in revenue and $2.85-$3.05 in adjusted EPS, both well above consensus, though dilution risks are rising.
Lumentum is rated a strong buy as Wall Street underestimates the longevity and margin potential of its InP EMLs at the 3.2T node. LITE's shift to a foundry model, underpinned by Nvidia's $2B capacity lock-up, enables prepayments, inelastic pricing, and client-funded CapEx, supporting multiple expansions. Scale-Across pump lasers and intra-rack OCS drive significant long-term margin leverage, while vertical integration in transceivers is key to further margin accretion.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a key AI data center enabler, with optical connectivity and laser products driving explosive sales growth. LITE's gross margins have expanded from 23% to 44% and net margins from -24% to nearly 18% over seven quarters, signaling strong operating leverage. Despite a current premium valuation, I expect LITE to deliver 20%+ annualized returns through 2030, with net margins potentially exceeding 30%.
Nvidia's fiscal Q1 networking momentum validates an accelerating CPO inflection across next-generation AI infrastructure builds. With Lumentum Holdings Inc. being a key supplier and strategic partner to Nvidia's CPO roadmap, the company is poised for upside from the impending AI networking technology shift. Coupled with LITE's upcoming ramp-up of its ultra-high-power lasers and optical circuit switches, the company's well-positioned for an incremental uplift to its growth and earnings profile.