Altria's recent price divergence from the broader market is yet another demonstration of its hedging role. The role is very timely judging by the odds of a recession, its Q2 sales data, and the recent price elasticity data of its products. The combination of high yield and low P/E further enhances the potency of its hedging role.
Altria missed expectations in Q2 amid continual revenue challenges in the combustible segment. NJOY momentum, however, remained favorable again. I expect MO to raise its dividend by 4.0% in the third quarter, which would give shares a forward dividend yield of 8%. I am now neutral on valuation, and downgrade shares to hold, given that they have reached my fair value target price of $49 per share.
Altria has delivered relatively strong financial results in Q2, 2024, confirming the notion of a gradually growing business. Yet, considering these data points and the fact that the stock has delivered almost 30% in total returns since the issuance of my initial investment case, I have become less bullish. In this article, I explain the reasons why I have decided to keep my capital in MO, but stopped reinvesting the dividends or increasing the stake here.
Altria (NYSE: MO), the big tobacco company, has a stock that has risen 10% in the last month, while Nasdaq's stock has dropped 3%.
24/7 Insights Altria is a member of the Dividend Kings.
Consumers are smoking fewer and fewer cigarettes. Altria is fighting this headwind well enough with alternative products and stock buybacks.
Altria Group, Inc.'s shares have surged by 15.3% since April, outperforming the S&P 500. Second-quarter financial results showed a decline in revenue and adjusted earnings, with market share erosion continuing. Bright spots included growth in NJOY vaping technology and on! nicotine pouches, but overall weakness persists.
Altria Group NYSE: MO is one of the world's “Big Three” tobacco companies and is in the consumer staples sector. Let's examine the firm's business segments and the state of the cigarette market.
The Altria Group stock price decreased by ~3% after the Q2 2024 earnings release. MO continues to struggle within its smokeable product portfolio and cannot offset negative volume effects with positive price/mix effects. Smoke-free products hold significant potential. However, much work remains before this potential can be properly realized.
Altria's Q2 sales and earnings fell short of Wall Street's targets. The tobacco company also narrowed its full-year earnings guidance.
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO ) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 31, 2024 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Mac Livingston - Vice President of Investor Relations Billy Gifford - Chief Executive Officer Sal Mancuso - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs Matt Smith - Stifel Callum Elliott - Bernstein Faham Baig - UBS Gaurav Jain - Barclays Owen Bennett - Jefferies Operator Good day everyone and welcome to the Altria Group 2024 Second Quarter and First Half Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session representative of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks.
Altria's (MO) second-quarter 2024 results reflect strong pricing, while cigarette shipment volumes remain soft. Management narrows the adjusted EPS view for 2024.