Microsoft's commercial RPO reached $625 billion, up 110% YoY, with roughly $156 billion converting within 12 months. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39% YoY, driving Microsoft Cloud's topline to $51.5 billion, up 26%. Commercial bookings surged 230% YoY, while remaining performance obligations beyond 12 months climbed 156%, strengthening long-term visibility.
Microsoft remains a buy despite justified repricing after its latest earnings revealed increased concentration risk from OpenAI-related backlog. MSFT's premium valuation has been challenged as 45% of its $625 billion RPO is tied to OpenAI, raising sustainability concerns. While MSFT's forward multiples are near peer averages, its strong legacy moat and predictable growth support a positive long-term outlook.
Microsoft: An OpenAI Problem (Rating Upgrade)
AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are hiring social media creators to post sponsored content on apps like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn. Companies including Microsoft and Google have paid creators between $400,000 and $600,000 for long-term partnerships spanning several months, CNBC has learned.
Microsoft (MSFT) is encountering challenges. Even the most prominent companies aren't immune.
While Google's cloud growth blew Wall Street away, a Stifel analyst worries it will be difficult for Microsoft Azure to accelerate growth in the near future.
MSFT shares sank 14% after Q2 as AI capex, margin pressure and cloud capacity limits overshadowed beats and a record $51.5 billion Cloud quarter.
Investors questioning whether hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure will deliver returns may find comfort in new research. The major cloud providers — Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — have increased their investments while boosting profitability metrics.
Microsoft delivered a strong Q2, beating top- and bottom-line estimates, yet the stock sold off on perceived Azure growth slowdown. MSFT's AI strategy is broader than Azure, with M365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, and Maia 200 chip showing robust growth and overlooked potential. I upgrade MSFT to Strong Buy, based on my ensemble model's price target of $562, as current pessimism and indiscriminate selling present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
Microsoft has declined over 20% from its high but remains only fairly valued, not a bargain. Microsoft's valuation multiples have moderated—P/E at 26.9 and P/FCF at 41.5—but still require sustained high growth to justify. Strong quarterly results and Copilot momentum highlight growth, yet high CapEx on short-lived assets and OpenAI risks temper optimism.
Meta offers a cleaner, more robust AI monetization story versus Microsoft, with superior unit economics and accelerating revenue growth. MSFT faces execution risks tied to backlog concentration with OpenAI and slower Azure growth, keeping its rerating on hold until revenue inflection is demonstrated. Both META and MSFT trade at similar forward P/E ratios (23–24), but META's clearer AI-driven upside and operating leverage make it the preferred near-term pick.
Microsoft's security boss, Charlie Bell, is moving to a new role as an individual contributor. The company hired Google executive Hayete Gallot to replace him.