Microsoft remains a buy as core business indicators, especially Azure, show robust growth and momentum. The recent Q4 earnings print revealed a re-acceleration in commercial bookings, supporting a longer-term rally thesis. The company is expecting double-digit revenue growth in FY '27 with commercial revenue growth accelerating each quarter.
Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT investors have owned two different companies in 2026. Or at least, they've been told two very different stories about the same one.
Microsoft just posted its strongest quarterly stock gain in 35 years, but the rally left it barely above where it started the year and still below its all-time high.
I was a Strong Buy after the October 2025 rout. With Microsoft up nearly 40% since my last coverage, I'm still bullish, but I'm cutting conviction because the macro changed. I've seen the AI agent story before. Microsoft may monetize this wave (or not), but three years of forgotten agent launches make me skeptical. I want one clean proof point next quarter. Copilot paid seats moving well above 30 million, with management saying Autopilot actually drove the increase.
Microsoft's Charles Lamanna says most business software will end up running behind AI agents rather than in front of users, leaving apps with less pricing power and customer loyalty.
Piper Sandler just set one of Wall Street's boldest Microsoft targets, and the reasoning goes well beyond last quarter's blowout earnings.
Azure's explosive backlog and Copilot's paid seat growth have bulls eyeing targets near $700, but a capex surge that outpaced free cash flow by a wide margin could threaten the entire AI thesis before it pays off.
The Xbox segment is expected to recover post-FY2026 decline via restructuring, exclusive game releases, and the competitive Xbox Helix console launch in 2028. Streamlining unprofitable studios, raising hardware prices, and focusing on high-value exclusive content are expected to improve margins and subscriber growth. Game Pass revenue and upcoming franchise releases are projected to drive Xbox Content and Services growth, offsetting recent hardware and subscriber declines.
President Trump's meetings with tech leaders produced some voluntary safeguards and a commitment to rebrand artificial intelligence as “super intelligence,” the term that Mr. Trump prefers.
Microsoft Corporation remains a Strong Buy as in-house AI models drive up to 89% GPU cost savings, supporting robust margins despite surging capex. Cloud gross margin held at 65% in the June quarter, and the 8% dividend raise appears sustainable, with free cash flow covering the payout more than twice over. Copilot's shift to usage-based pricing, launching Nov. 2 for small businesses, positions MSFT to capture incremental revenue and profit as adoption scales.
OpenAI has been a close partner of Microsoft from the jump, but the AI lab is increasingly going after the company's bread and butter, workplace software, with new features that closely resemble an office software suite like Microsoft's.
Azure is accelerating past 40% growth, Copilot seats are doubling quarter over quarter, and a commercial backlog approaching $700 billion sits waiting to convert.