For retirees and conservative income investors weighing bond ETFs, two funds dominate the conversation: the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:BND).
In 2021, Elon Musk paid over $11 billion to the IRS (his 2026 federal tax may be significantly larger, due to the SpaceX IPO).
By some estimates, 11,000 baby boomers retire each and every day. For those keeping score at home, that works out to be 4.1 million boomers leaving the traditional workforce every year.
High-bracket retirees face a math problem that taxable bond funds cannot solve: every dollar of interest income gets taxed at the federal marginal rate, often layered with a state tax bite.
Confluence Wealth Services Inc. grew its position in iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) by 10.8% during the fourth quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 91,906 shares of the exchange traded fund's stock after purchasing an additional 8,984 shares
The iShares National Muni Bond ETF offers competitive tax-equivalent yields versus corporate bonds and Treasuries making it an attractive option in the current market environment. Nearly half of the ETF's asset base is covered by tax-linked revenue, which arguably reduces cyclical risks. MUB ETF's credit sensitivity is low-to-moderate and the vehicle handled the U.S.-Iran event's inception rather well, on a relative basis.
Betterment LLC lessened its stake in shares of iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) by 6.7% in the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 17,343,529 shares of the exchange traded fund's stock after selling 1,240,704 shares
iShares National Muni Bond ETF offers high credit quality exposure but delivers a modest 3.15% yield, reflecting its index-tracking approach. MUB's strategy of holding only high-grade munis and broad market tenor results in middling returns, especially compared to more selective, credit-risk-focused funds. I believe credit risk is overpriced in munis; taking more nominal credit risk, as in SHYM or NMCO, can deliver 1–2% higher yields with manageable risk.
We've expected credit spreads to deteriorate for quite some time. In our view, new economic data, a technical lag in spread activity, and the Iran war might consolidate the argument. While re-inflation risk has to be acknowledged, we think investors will stay in and migrate to higher-quality bonds from riskier assets. The iShares National Muni Bond ETF is a prime candidate, showing less spread risk than investment grade bonds and lower volatility than intermediate-term treasury ETF, IEF.
Maintaining a neutral stance on iShares National Muni Bond ETF due to opposing forces: Structural funding concerns versus diminished inflation worries. MUB's seven-year duration makes it sensitive to yield changes, but credit risk remains minimal as most holdings are AA-rated, and credit spreads have been under control. Inflation risks are subdued thanks to lower oil prices and modest U.S. import exposure, easing one major headwind for fixed income.
The Republican-controlled U.S. House passed President Trump's tax and spending bill by a razor-thin margin of 215-214 votes, adding $3.8 trillion to the national debt. The bill is now headed for the Senate approval.
The iShares National Muni Bond ETF is risky due to already anticipated inflation and supply chain shocks under the Trump administration. MUB's high duration at over 6 years positions it badly for that. Inflation expectations have risen, complicating the Fed's inflation battle and potentially leading to higher local production costs and consumer prices.