Stop looking at charts from periods of economic strength and look at periods of economic weakness to project forward outlooks. Buy investments that will generate outsized income in difficult situations. After years of shrinking dividends, the dividend is growing again.
Mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital Management's common stock are high-risk and best treated as trading securities, not buy-and-hold investments. Annaly's preferred shares, particularly NLY-I, carry minimal risk except for call risk. The call risk is nasty. NLY-I's current price of $25.87 risks a $0.71 per share loss if called, making it prudent to wait for a better entry point.
In the latest trading session, Annaly Capital Management (NLY) closed at $21.61, marking a -0.32% move from the previous day.
Since December, Annaly Capital Management has delivered a 16% total return, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by lower mortgage spreads. Unlike most stocks, NLY remained roughly flat over the past month, signaling surprising defensive value in agency mortgage REITs. Although a recession may increase mortgage credit risks, most of Annaly's assets are guaranteed by agencies; though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain undercapitalized.
NLY increases the first-quarter 2025 dividend by 7.7% to 70 cents per share. Given its decent liquidity, capital distribution seems sustainable.
Since my last writing, long-term treasury rates have declined enough to cause a negative yield spread, a potential headwind for NLY. However, the narrowing of the yield spread is more than offset by other positive developments. The top two on my list are the bullish technical trading patterns and also the outlook of future interest cuts in the next ~3 months.
The latest trading day saw Annaly Capital Management (NLY) settling at $21.69, representing a +1.31% change from its previous close.
NLY, PFLT and ORI made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) income stocks list on March 5, 2025.
Annaly (NLY) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company reached a key level of support. Recently, NLY's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, known as a "golden cross.
My Income Never Stops, 12% Yield: Annaly Capital
Annaly's improved investment spreads and earnings beat in Q4, coupled with potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, make it a promising investment. Annaly's Q4 net interest income surged to $187.3M, with a positive net interest spread of 0.40%, the highest in the past year. Annaly's valuation at a price-to-book ratio of 1.06X suggests revaluation potential, contingent on the Federal Reserve lowering rates going forward.