NVIDIA Corporation NVDA will report its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results on Wednesday, after market close. Trade disputes and competition from Chinese counterparts may weigh on NVIDIA, but advances in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) could help the company generate another quarter of revenue and profit growth.
There are high expectations for NVIDIA's NASDAQ: NVDA Q1 performance ahead of the earnings release, but perhaps not bullish enough. The market is poised to surge 50% or more with a positive catalyst, and it appears one is on the doorstep.
Kevin Green kicks off the holiday shortened week with a full dive into the top storylines of the week. He looks at the weekend developments out of the White House, as a 50% tariff hike on the E.U.
Nvidia Corporation remains the backbone of AI development, with strong growth in Compute & Networking and a promising future in automotive and robotics. Q1 '26 earnings are expected to impress, driven by Blackwell chip sales, despite near-term margin pressure from ramping up production. The automotive segment is emerging as a major long-term growth catalyst, fueled by partnerships with top automakers and rapid autonomous vehicle market expansion.
Nvidia was rising with the chip maker set to post its first-quarter results after Wednesday's close.
Nvidia faces major risks from escalating US-China trade tensions, with Chinese competitors rapidly gaining market share and threatening Nvidia's international growth prospects. The company's premium pricing and high valuation multiples are unsustainable as the GPU market shifts toward total cost of ownership and lower-cost alternatives. Recent margin compression and negative EPS revisions signal that Nvidia's forward growth will likely underperform, justifying a strong sell rating ahead of earnings.
Heading into first quarter earnings, NVIDIA continues to dominate AI chips. However, it is in the process of losing one of its biggest markets: China. China was responsible for 13% of NVIDIA's sales in the last fiscal year. Other segments could grow enough to make up for losing China, but it wouldn't be easy.
Downgrading Nvidia to "Hold" from "Buy" ahead of Q1 FY2026 earnings due to emerging concerns about future price action despite recent outperformance. Q1 EPS faces pressure from H20 chip export ban charges ($5.5B initial, potentially $15B annually), impacting gross margins despite expected top-line beat and Blackwell ramp. Rising long-term competition from AMD, Chinese players like Huawei, and hyperscalers (Meta, Google) developing custom ASICs could soon impact NVDA's market dominance.
Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to report earnings this week. Although we expect a messy guide, the expectations for Nvidia's earnings are very low (much lower than consensus indicates). During the quarter, there was a big announcement about the US restricting exports of H20s to China. As a result, Nvidia wrote off $5B of inventory, resulting in a margin hit of about ~15%. All eyes will be on commentary related to the Blackwell ramp, which we expect will more than offset the negative impact of China.
NVDA's Q1 revenues are expected to surge 64% year over year as AI demand and datacenter growth continue to drive strong performance across industries.
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) is planning to release a cheaper version of its Blackwell AI chip for the Chinese market, with mass production expected to begin as early as June 2025, according to a Reuters report. Sources with knowledge of the matter told the publication that this chip is reportedly designed to comply with US export restrictions and will be priced between $6,500 and $8,000, which is lower than the $10,000 to $12,000 price of the H20 model.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will issue its next quarterly dividend on June 27, paying $0.01 per share.