Blue Owl Capital Just Showed Green Shoots Of A Big Recovery
Blue Owl Capital has been hammered by fears of AI-driven loan disruption and a private-credit "liquidity mismatch." However, it just showed green shoots that its nightmarish start to 2026 may soon be over. I provide a detailed update on my OWL investment thesis.
Blue Owl Stock Rises as Exit Rush Eases
Blue Owl Capital faced higher June-quarter redemption requests than peers, but there was some good news: Exit requests at Blue Owl declined from March quarter levels.
Blue Owl stock rises as redemption requests ease at its flagship funds
Investors sought to withdraw less money from two of Blue Owl Capital's flagship private-credit funds in the second quarter, providing early signs that redemption pressures across the sector may be beginning to moderate after months of elevated withdrawals. The New York-based alternative asset manager said investors requested withdrawals totaling $4.7 billion during the quarter, down from $5.4 billion in the previous three months.
Blue Owl Investors Ask to Withdraw $4.7 Billion From Flagship Funds
Redemption requests declined from the previous quarter but remained elevated.
Blue Owl: The Market Is Still Pricing In An Earnings Collapse
Blue Owl Capital remains significantly undervalued, trading at 9.6x forward P/E and offering an 11% forward dividend yield. Despite recent sell-offs and retail jitters, OWL's institutional base is resilient, downplaying the selling frenzy that struck again in June. Direct lending headwinds persist, but OWL's growth in real estate and data infrastructure AUM, especially from AI-driven demand, provides substantial upside optionality.
Blue Owl Capital: Dividend Cut, Balance Sheet Improves Risk/Reward, But Still Not A Buy
Blue Owl Capital remains a hold as macro uncertainty and tight dividend coverage offset improved liquidity and leverage. OBDC trades at a 22.5% discount to NAV and offers an 11% forward dividend yield after a recent 16% dividend cut. Leverage improved to 1.13x, non-accruals declined, and Moody's upgraded OBDC to Baa2, enhancing balance sheet strength.
Blue Owl Capital: Private Credit Fears Gift
Blue Owl Capital Corp. trades at a deep discount to NAV, offering an 11% dividend yield and substantial upside potential. OBDC's credit risks remain contained, with only 2% of investments on non-accrual and $4 billion in excess liquidity for future opportunities. The dividend was cut to $0.31 but is supplemented by payouts tied to actual NII, aligning distributions with income rather than stability.
Blue Owl Capital: Stop The Panic! Just Look Under The Hood
Blue Owl Capital trades at a steep discount after a 37% YTD decline, despite solid Q1 results and robust earnings power. AI-related risks impact 3.5% of OWL's private credit AuM, but recovery rate analysis suggests only marginal capital loss potential. OWL's portfolio is heavily first-lien and senior secured, with low non-accruals and strong borrower metrics, supporting downside protection.
Blue Owl Capital: The Market Is Punishing This Stock For The Exact Reason It Should Love It
Blue Owl Capital is rated Buy, trading at a steep discount despite robust growth in fee-related earnings and AUM. OWL's recurring management fees, primarily from permanent capital, drive predictable earnings and support a well-covered dividend. Real assets, especially data center buildouts with partners like Meta, are a key growth engine, offsetting concerns in the Credit Platform.
Blue Owl Capital: Once-In-A-Decade Opportunity
OWL is deeply undervalued after a 58% crash. The market is afraid of AI disruption and worse inflows. But OWL's portfolio has expanded from 3 to 8 segments in 4 years, with digital infrastructure now 6% of AUM and strong inflows continuing.
Blue Owl Capital: Irrational Fears Result In Massive 10% Yield Opportunity
Blue Owl Capital Inc. offers a nearly 10% dividend yield and trades at just 11x forward earnings after a 50% share price decline. OWL's assets under management have grown over 230% in four years, driven by strong capital raising and attractive fund performance. Fee-related earnings grew 14% and distributable earnings 11% year-over-year, with continued capital inflows supporting future growth.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Presents at Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Presents at Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript
