Blue Owl Capital offers a 20%+ discount after a book-value loan sale
Blue Owl Capital has been on the receiving end of the market angst. Valuation looks appealing if this isn't the end of the world. Should you buy, or get to the chopper?
OBDC has fallen nearly 30% as headlines around liquidity and redemptions spooked investors. The $1.4B asset sale looked alarming, but the loans cleared at 99.7% of par value. The failed OBDC II merger exposed a structural issue, not a credit breakdown.
Blue Owl Capital has seen recent stock declines driven by misplaced credit and AI disruption fears. The alternative asset manager reported strong Q4 '25 results: fee-related earnings and distributable income rose over 20% YoY, AUM reached $307 billion, and the dividend yield now exceeds 8%. Market concerns over software lending and fund liquidity are overstated; OWL's lending is conservative, with software loans at 30% loan-to-value and robust EBITDA growth.
My contrarian bear case for Blue Owl Capital has played out as planned - i.e., the stock is down by ~22%. Even my thesis that the dividend will inevitably fall under the chopping block seems to come to fruition. However, I have to admit that the market has become too emotional here, pricing OBDC as it is about to face a calamity.
Blue Owl, a direct lender specializing in loans to the software industry, said Wednesday it had sold $1.4 billion of its loans to institutional investors at 99.7% of par value. That means sophisticated players scrutinized the loans and the companies involved and felt comfortable paying nearly full price for the debt, a message that Blue Owl co-President Craig Packer sought to convey in interviews several times this week.
A private credit fund is triggering visions of cockroaches and canaries in coal mines in some investors' minds.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation remains a Buy, as the market has already priced in deep concerns, with shares trading at a >20% NAV discount. OBDC's $400M asset sale at 99.7% of par to institutions validates portfolio quality and supports a refreshed $300M stock repurchase program. Software exposure (11% of portfolio) is being heavily discounted, yet non-accruals have improved to 1.1%, reinforcing credit resilience.
Blue Owl Capital permanently restricted withdrawals from one of its retail-focused debt funds. Market watchers warn Blue Owls move could be the canary in the coal mine.
Blue Owl Capital ( NYSE:OWL ) shares are falling 9% in morning trading today after the firm announced it would permanently halt quarterly redemptions from its Blue Owl Capital Corporation II fund, known as OBDC II.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation remains a 'Strong Buy' despite recent underperformance and dividend cut fears. Even under a pessimistic 25% dividend cut scenario, OBDC is undervalued by nearly 20% versus its intrinsic value and NAV. OBDC's pro forma yield would still be an attractive 9.25%, supported by a strong balance sheet and $3.2B liquidity.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript