Pagaya shares plunge 47.7% in a month after soft 2026 guidance and tighter underwriting spook investors despite positive GAAP income.
PGY hits a 2025 inflection, with profitable quarters, a capital-light ABS model and a growing partner network driving scale.
I expect Pagaya to beat analysts' revenue and EPS estimates when it reports Q4 earnings on February 9th. PGY's estimated network volume growth and operating leverage could help offset a potential sequential CNL rate expansion, in light of the higher NCOs reported by SoFi and Ally during Q4. I expect Pagaya to report YoY revenue and EPS growth of 25% and 138%, respectively, in FY 2026, driven by accelerated onboarding of 8 new partners and take rate expansion.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is deeply undervalued following a 44.6% selloff despite robust growth. PGY's business model is misunderstood; it is asset-light, B2B, and not as exposed to credit market cycles. Strong catalysts include expanding partnerships, rapid onboarding, and diversification into auto and POS lending, driving network volume and margin expansion.
PGY reports Q4 results on Feb. 9 as revenue growth, guidance and rising expenses shape whether investors should buy, hold or stay cautious.
Can Pagaya's AI-powered, capital-light platform outshine a traditional non-prime rival like OneMain on growth potential? Let us find out.
PGY's asset-light model keeps most loans off its balance sheet, using ABS and forward flows to curb credit risk and stay resilient in volatile markets.
Pagaya Technologies shows significant undervaluation of 50% vs its peers, combined with moderate growth and expanding margins (e.g., EBITDA margin improved from 7% to 20% in four quarters). PGY's edge rests on six competitive advantages, including an AI-driven 'Second Look' model, upfront funding, and B2B2C partnerships that focus on working with banks instead of competing against them. I see a 91% upside in my base case—a blend of relative and absolute valuation—driven mainly by expanding margins and a potential drop in the discount rate.
Pagaya Technologies has reset expectations and valuation after a volatile period, presenting a compelling bullish setup ahead of its upcoming earnings. PGY's operational improvements in 2025 drove strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and stabilized credit risk, setting a solid foundation for 2026. Consensus 2026 EPS estimates appear conservative; I see realistic upside to $3.25–$3.50, implying 5–15% stock appreciation from current levels.
Pagaya Technologies is rated a buy, offering triple-digit upside potential driven by robust AI-powered lending and strong partner ramp. PGY consistently delivers double-digit revenue growth, surpassing industry averages, with Q3 2025 revenue at $350.1M and improving profitability. The B2B2C model and multi-product adoption position PGY for scalable growth, with 8 new partners and a raised FY 2025 GAAP net income guidance.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) concluded the recent trading session at $24.74, signifying a -4.96% move from its prior day's close.
PGY hit a 2025 inflection point with three straight GAAP profits, shrinking credit losses and a 125% share surge amid stronger fundamentals.