Evaluate the expected performance of Rithm (RITM) for the quarter ended December 2025, looking beyond the conventional Wall Street top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining some of its key metrics for better insight.
RITM.PR.F: An 8.75% Fixed-Rate Reset Preferred IPO From Rithm Capital
RITM heads into Q4 with shaky servicing revenue, putting pressure on earnings despite strength in asset management.
RITM remains a great income Buy here, supported by the discounted valuations, the low EAD payout ratio, and the consequently rich/secure dividend yields. The recent acquisitions and capital raises position it for $109B pro forma investable assets, as the management shifts away from pure mortgage origination/servicing opportunities. Otherwise, readers may look forward to near-term top/bottom-line noise, attributed to mixed hedging/net interest income prospects from the Fed rate cuts and the near-term integration costs.
Rithm (RITM) concluded the recent trading session at $11.35, signifying a +1.34% move from its prior day's close.
Rithm (RITM) concluded the recent trading session at $10.9, signifying a -1.54% move from its prior day's close.
This article compares RITM's recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several dividend sustainability metrics to 17 mREIT peers. This includes an analysis of RITM's quarterly core earnings/earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) which directly impacts the company's dividend sustainability. This article also projects RITM's dividend sustainability for Q1 2026 – Q2 2026 (including specific per share amounts).
The latest trading day saw Rithm (RITM) settling at $11.04, representing a -1.34% change from its previous close.
Dynex Capital is rated 'Buy' due to its high-quality, agency MBS-focused portfolio and strong positioning for Fed rate cuts. DX's transparent, interest-rate-sensitive structure contrasts with Rithm Capital's complex, diversified portfolio, which is less sensitive to rates but more to economic cycles. DX is favored for clarity, yield, and rate-cut upside, while RITM is recommended as 'Hold' for investors seeking inflation protection and dividend reliability.
Part 1 of this article compares Rithm Capital's recent investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, quarterly BV, economic return (loss), and current valuation to 17 mREIT peers. Due to what has occurred during Q4 2025 (fluctuating rates/yields), understanding the composition of RITM's MSR/investment and derivatives portfolio is crucial in understanding current/future performance. My current RITM BV projection and updated price target is in the “Conclusions Drawn” section. RITM is currently deemed notably undervalued (strong buy recommendation).
Rithm Capital is aggressively expanding into third-party asset management, highlighted by the Crestline Management acquisition, and aims for continued diversification through 2026. Recent acquisitions, including Crestline ($18B AUM) and Paramount Global are positioning RITM for further asset-light, fee-based growth. Transition to fee-based business model may catalyze a higher valuation multiplier for Rithm Capital long term.
The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 25.4% in Rithm (RITM). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable, the positive trend in earnings estimate revisions might translate into an upside in the stock.