The current macroeconomic parameters make me feel lukewarm on the mREIT sector. My top concerns include persistent yield curve inversion and rising mortgage delinquency rates. I urge investors to err on the side of being conservative under such conditions.
This article compares RITM's recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several dividend sustainability metrics to 17 mREIT peers. This includes an analysis of RITM's quarterly core earnings/earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) which directly impacts the company's dividend sustainability. This article also projects RITM's dividend sustainability for Q3 – Q4 2025 (including specific per share amounts).
Rithm (RITM) concluded the recent trading session at $11.29, signifying a -1.4% move from its prior day's close.
Part 1 of this article compares RITM's recent investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, quarterly BV, economic return (loss), and current valuation to 17 mREIT peers. Due to what has occurred during Q2 2025 (fluctuating rates/yields), understanding the composition of RITM's MSR/investment and derivatives portfolio is crucial in understanding current/future performance. My current RITM BV projection and updated price target are in the "Conclusions Drawn" section. RITM is currently deemed undervalued (buy recommendation).
In the latest trading session, Rithm (RITM) closed at $11.21, marking no change from the previous day.
Rithm Capital delivered mixed Q1'25 earnings, but the mortgage REIT easily supported its dividend with earnings available for distribution. I continue to rate RITM a 'Strong Buy' due to its successful and growing diversification and a well-supported 9% dividend yield. Shares trade at an unjustified discount to book value, given consistent excess dividend coverage and resilient earnings streams.
Rithm Capital offers a secure 9% dividend yield, well-covered by distributable earnings, making it highly attractive for passive income investors. The trust's significant Mortgage Servicing Rights exposure benefits from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, supporting resilience and upside potential. Rithm Capital trades at a 9% discount to book value, providing a margin of safety and potential for re-rating as market conditions stabilize.
RITM continues to witness growth in originated residential mortgage loans held for sale, net. It paid a quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share in Q1.
Here is how Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. Unsponsored ADR (BPCGY) and Rithm (RITM) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
RITM has outperformed as an mREIT in FQ1'25, despite the volatile rates/ yields triggering the impacted MSR hedging results and the subsequent top-line miss. It has also consistently reported asset inflows with higher AUMs on QoQ/ YoY basis, underscoring its growing success as an alternative asset manager. While RITM's near-term execution may be negated by the rapidly developing macroeconomic environment, the management is laser focused to grow their capabilities beyond the MSR focused mREIT.
Rithm (RITM) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reflecting growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. This might drive the stock higher in the near term.
Here is how Rithm (RITM) and Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. Unsponsored ADR (BPCGY) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.