Sirius XM trades at a low free cash flow multiple due to market concerns over leverage, stagnant growth, and competition from streaming, but its cash flow remains robust. The company's niche in auto entertainment provides cash flow stability and a potential moat against streaming competitors. If free cash flow is used to pay down debt and buy back shares, equity value could rise significantly, offering a potential 17-20% annualized return through to 2027.
I upgrade SiriusXM to a buy, as valuation now reflects excessive pessimism despite ongoing headwinds and a well-managed decline. Cost-cutting and lower capital spending are driving improved free cash flow, with deleveraging on track to enable buybacks by 2027. Subscriber growth remains challenged, but lower churn and an upcoming ad-supported tier could stabilize the base and support long-term ARPU.
In trading on Friday, shares of SiriusXM Holdings were yielding above the 5% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $1.08), with the stock changing hands as low as $21.59 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market's total return.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI ) J.P. Morgan 53rd Annual Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference May 13, 2025 10:10 AM ET Company Participants Jennifer Witz - CEO Conference Call Participants Sebastiano Petti - JPMorgan Sebastiano Petti Good morning, everyone.
SIRI's first-quarter 2025 results reflect weakness in subscriber, advertisement and equipment revenues.
Sirius XM's Q1/25 results missed expectations, but the underlying metrics were surprisingly good. The strongly negative market reaction seems a bit too much when considering the positive tone of the earnings call. To lift the stock, Sirius XM clearly needs to deliver more than just another series of experiments with new subscription tiers.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 1, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Hooper Stevens - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance Jennifer Witz - Chief Executive Officer Tom Barry - Chief Financial Officer Scott Greenstein - President and Chief Content Officer Wayne Thorsen - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Conference Call Participants Sebastiano Petti - JP Morgan Kutgun Maral - Evercore ISI Steven Cahall - Wells Fargo Jessica Reif Ehrlich - Bank of America Stephen Laszczyk - Goldman Sachs Barton Crockett - Rosenblatt Securities Cameron Mansson-Perrone - Morgan Stanley Operator Greetings. Welcome to the Sirius XM First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call.
The headline numbers for Sirius XM (SIRI) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended March 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Sirius XM (SIRI) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.59 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.70 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.70 per share a year ago.
As the earnings drumbeat continues, SiriusXM CFO Tom Barry said the company doesn't expect “that tariff-related pressure on new car sales will have a material impact on our subscriber or financial performance this year,” but cautioned, “that said, like every business, we'll continue to closely monitor ongoing developments and broader consumer health.
SIRI's Q1 is expected to have seen weaker subscriber additions due to strategic adjustments, but advertising revenues are likely to have grown moderately.
Beyond analysts' top -and-bottom-line estimates for Sirius XM (SIRI), evaluate projections for some of its key metrics to gain a better insight into how the business might have performed for the quarter ended March 2025.