SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Q4 U.S. Stock Market Outlook & Road Map
Though the recent S&P 500 correction is painful for most investors, historical data illustrates that is is in line with historical norms, and a long-term low is close. Nevertheless, evidence shows that there is reason to remain cautious in the short term.
The Index Huggers Don't Know About This 8.9% Dividend Yet
Well the “index huggers” hurled their positions quickly, didn't they! Some bad jobs numbers.
Market Bottom or More Downside & Volatility Ahead?
It's far too soon to assume that volatility will subside in the short-term. However, the market is flashing extremes that often coincide with long-term market bottoms.
Market Sell-Off? This Active Equity ETF Is Still Outperforming
Carry trades unwinding, unemployment data stress, or even rate-cut disappointment – whichever the cause, markets are selling and selling hard. Many key tech names that have helped lift the stock market have lost a notable portion of their gains this year to the sell-off.
Why a Recession is Back in Play and What it Means for Stocks
The market is tumbling on the compounded effect of cooling inflation and reinvigorated recession fear. The July CPI report set the market into motion, leading it to believe that interest rate cuts are coming, sparking a sector rotation that is evolving into a major stock market meltdown.
SPY: 4 Reasons To Exercise Prudence
The economic picture is not as rosy as the FED proclaims.
What The Expectation Breaker For The S&P 500 Told Us
A follow-through day sets up a certain expectation. When expectations are broken, it requires swift action.
SPY: Don't Be The 'Greater Fool'
The inverted yield curve in recent months hasn't led to a recession yet, possibly due to big tech companies' influence and other reasons. However, the leading economic indicators are worsening - never before have the LEIs declined for so long without a recession.
SPY: Good, But Not The Best
SPY ETF is an index fund loved by many for good reasons. However, I do believe that the S&P 500 has several hurdles to cross given the current economic situation. In addition, there are many alternatives to SPY ETF which offer more portfolio diversification and/or cost efficiency.
SPY: Q2 Earnings And Rate Cut Probability Improved Its Return Outlook
Since my previous writing, SPY has become more attractively valued with an unchanged CAPE ratio but lower real interest rates. More importantly, the probability of interest rate cuts in 2024 has dramatically increased. Meanwhile, the Q2 earnings forecast points to double-digit annual EPS growth from the underlying companies.
SPY: Prematurely Priced For A 'Soft' Landing
Amid "goldilocks" economic data in the first half of 2024, Mr. Market has priced a "no" landing scenario into the equity markets. However, rising unemployment and impending yield curve uninversion threaten to break the "soft/no" narrative. The top-heavy market rally off of 2022 lows has been driven by P/E multiple expansion. If we get a hard landing (recession), S&P 500 investors are set up for a rude awakening.
Q2 Earnings: Where Street Estimates Are Too Low & Who Should Beat
24% of S&P 500 companies have Street Earnings lower than Core Earnings in TTM ended 1Q24. 8% of S&P 500 companies have Street Earnings understating Core Earnings by more than 10% in 1Q24. Analysis based on ~3,000 10-Ks and 10-Qs filed with the SEC for 1Q24 results shows that when Street Earnings are understated, it's by an average of 16%.
