Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) has underperformed SPY since inception but could outperform in 2026 under certain macro conditions. SWAN employs a leveraged 40/60 stock-to-bond allocation using call options, aiming for better risk balance and downside protection than traditional 60/40 portfolios. Key risks include lack of protection against fixed-income declines and no exposure to alternative assets like gold, which have hindered recent performance.
Nobody can predict when the next major market downturn, or what finance academician Nassim Taleb calls a “black swan event,” will occur. For a portfolio that's ill-equipped to handle the next major market event, it could be its swan song when (not if) that takes place.
Nobody can predict when the next major market downturn, or what finance academician Nassim Taleb calls a “black swan event,” will occur. For a portfolio that's ill-equipped to handle the next major market event, it could be its swan song when (not if) that takes place.
Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) offers a unique 60/90 leveraged portfolio, flipping traditional 60/40 allocations for risk balancing. SWAN primarily invests in short-to-medium duration US Treasuries and uses S&P 500 call options for equity exposure, capping downside risk. Current market conditions—attractive Treasury yields and elevated S&P 500 valuations—make SWAN appealing for both growth and defensive positioning.
SWAN participates in SPY's upside with LEAP call options while protecting capital from fast market crashes with a buffer of treasuries. The fund has delivered lower returns and similar drawdowns to SPY, but with significantly reduced volatility since inception. While SWAN is effective during sharp market crashes, it offers limited protection in slow downturns.
Regulated utilities are among our favorite businesses to cover. Eversource Energy has reaffirmed its 5% to 7% annual non-GAAP EPS growth outlook through 2029. The regulated utility is poised to strengthen its balance sheet in 2025.
As my portfolio's fourth-biggest position, Realty Income remains a core holding for me. The company is leaning into a huge growth runway overseas to fuel continued AFFO per share growth for shareholders. Realty Income has recently flexed its financial muscles.
The benefits of financial independence extend far beyond the financial realm. Today's focus will be on a custodian bank and asset manager, an investment data and analytics company, and a regulated electric utility. Each stock appears to be trading 8% to 13% under my fair value estimates.
Regulated utilities are among the most reliable dividend payers in the market and well represented among Dividend Kings. Black Hills Corporation is a Dividend King with a clear path to mid-single-digit annual EPS growth. The electric and gas utility is financially robust enough to execute on its base five-year capital spending plan of $4.7 billion and any incremental opportunities that arise.
The market is recovering. It may be the right time to invest. The proposed portfolio aims for 6% income, market-matching returns, capital protection, and low maintenance, making it ideal for conservative income investors. Despite being diversified and conservative, the portfolio carries market, geopolitical, and economic risks, but aims for lower volatility and drawdowns.
Reliable dividend growers form the foundation of our portfolio, featuring Microsoft, Xcel Energy, and Mastercard, each poised to become Dividend Aristocrats. These companies are 6% to 14% undervalued, offering a 1.6% average dividend yield and investment-grade credit ratings from BBB to AAA. With strong growth catalysts, they are expected to generate 13% to 17% annual total returns and have low payout ratios, ensuring continued dividend growth.
I'm reaffirming my buy rating on NextEra Energy due to its robust dividend growth, solid balance sheet, and undervalued stock price. NEE's Q1 2025 results showed a 9% revenue growth and 8.8% adjusted EPS growth, driven by FPL and NER's strong performance. The company plans significant investments to meet growing electricity demand, supported by its A-rated balance sheet and favorable growth prospects in Florida.