Citi has described Tesco PLC's (LSE:TSCO) latest executive changes as a modest positive, highlighting strong succession planning and renewed focus on higher-margin income streams. The reshuffle is expected to have a neutral to slightly positive impact on the shares.
Shoppers may be feeling the squeeze, but Britain's supermarket giants are holding their ground. According to a new note from RBC Capital Markets, Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) remain the best bets among the traditional “Big Four” grocers, despite fierce competition from discounters Aldi and Lidl.
Upgraded Tesco (TSCDY) to a buy rating due to improved fundamentals and attractive valuation, despite conservative FY26 guidance. Strong cost management and pricing strategy led to 8.6% y/y net income growth and increased market share in FY25. Retail media and data monetization efforts are scaling rapidly, potentially boosting earnings with high-margin revenue streams.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares climbed 4% on Friday, with Sainsbury's up 3%, as investors chose to look beyond a cautious profit outlook and instead focused on the sector's reputation for resilience in tough economic conditions. The gains helped reverse some of the declines seen earlier in the week after Tesco warned of the potential for lower profits in the year ahead.
Tesco's Aldi price matching initiative is pushing it further into the cutthroat world of discount grocers. The decline in operating profit for guidance despite ambitious cost-cutting plans, implies that pricing is going to get negative in the UK, despite remaining inflation. The structure for the business is toughening, and we'd start looking at better positioned bets, possibly like Kroger, which shares a similar valuation.
The grocer said it expects to report lower profit for its fiscal year as Asda and other rivals ramp up efforts to gain market share.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) reported a 10.6% growth in underlying profit for the past year and a £1.45 billion share buyback, but said profits are likely to fall this year. The UK's largest supermarket's new outlook suggested profits could decline up to almost 14% amidst a “further increase in the competitive intensity of the UK market” in the last few months, likely to be a reference to Asda's turnaround in recent months.
Tesco reports full-year results on Thursday, giving Britain's biggest supermarket group a platform to respond to rival Asda's move to lower prices that sent shares in the listed grocers tumbling.
Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) shares had been on the slide in the run-up to its final results on Thursday 10 April, though have picked up strongly after sinking to a seven-month low last month. On Thursday, while others were sinking under the weight of US tariff worries, shares in the UK's biggest supermarket were up over 4%.
Tesco share price has suffered a harsh reversal this month, erasing all the gains made earlier this year. After peaking at near 400p in February, the stock tumbled to a low of 320p, the lowest level since August 7 last year.
Tesco PLC's (LSE:TSCO) and J Sainsbury PLC's (LSE:SBRY) shares have struggled this year – shares in the former are down 14% in the last week, and stock in the latter is off 15%. But analysts at RBC Capital Markets see the sell-off as a buying opportunity, arguing that concerns over a potential price war sparked by Asda's aggressive discounting may be overblown.
Shares in Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) and Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) continued to fall on Monday as analysts weighed in on Asda's new turnaround plans and the potential impact on the wider sector, including what reactions there might be in terms of pricing strategy. Asda Stores Ltd said on Friday that it plans a "significant programme of strategic price investment" in 2025, with industry heavyweight Allan Leighton having been brought in to lead the company after losing market share under joint ownership by the Issa brothers and private equity group TDR.