USD/CAD is consolidating just below major resistance after a powerful multi-week rally carried the pair into fresh yearly highs. The tight range highlights a market coiling for its next directional move, with the July opening range now taking shape beneath a key technical barrier.
Summary:USD/CAD held near 1.4100 after extending its recovery, with traders watching the key 1.4115 resistance level. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar continues to outweigh support for the Canadian dollar from higher crude oil prices.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates near 1.4100 as bulls await 200-SMA breakout on H4
It has not been an easy start to the week for the Canadian dollar. Now, renewed weakness in the currency is becoming evident, while USD/CAD has gained more than 0.6% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting U.S. dollar strength and a new loss of momentum in the CAD.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Intraday positive move stalls ahead of 1.4100 confluence hurdle
The latest US tariffs on Canadian goods may be relatively modest in size, but the market reaction suggests investors are focusing on something bigger than the immediate trade impact. USD/CAD advanced after US President Donald Trump signed three proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian exports, including alcohol, dairy products, motor vehicles, cement, hockey equipment and electrical machinery.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest-performing major currency on Monday after softer-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations of further Bank of Canada policy tightening. Cooling headline and core inflation diminished Canada's relative yield advantage, weighing on the Loonie despite the central bank leaving its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
A week after a similarly below-expectation report from the US, Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% in May, while prices fell -0.4% m/m.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.4000 after breaking below 50-day EMA
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the support zone between the key support level 1.4050, support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: More downside likely towards 1.3970
The trading week continues to advance and, for now, the Canadian dollar has started to lose the strength it had shown in prev.