This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. Fighting Inflation vs.
For income-focused investors seeking a government-backed anchor for their portfolios, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund (NASDAQ:VGIT) has quietly become one of the cleanest expressions of Treasury income available.
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 12, 2026 at 4.48% while the 2-year note ended at 4.09%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 5, 2026 at 4.55% while the 2-year note ended at 4.17%, its highest level since February 2025. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
Ameriprise Financial Inc. increased its stake in shares of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ: VGIT) by 2.6% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 7,736,800 shares of the company's stock after buying an additional 193,521 shares during the quarter. Ameriprise
The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fd ETF faces ambiguous forward prospects amid escalating US-Iran conflict and shifting US yield curve dynamics. VGIT benefits from immediate bond rotation as investors seek safety due to its duration sensitivity, but inflationary pressures from higher oil prices may delay rate cuts, which is bad for longer duration. A potential recovery in the USD could boost strategic demand for US Treasuries in the longer term if the debasement trade is dialed back, which would be good for VGIT.
A new year can bring the adoption of a new perspective, which also applies to portfolio exposure. With that, the tried-and-tested 60-40 portfolio may be best flipped by instead using a 40-60 portfolio in a year that brings more uncertainty.
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares offers exposure to US government bonds with 3-7 year maturities and low costs. VGIT is sensitive to interest rate movements, benefiting from disinflation or less restrictive monetary policy, and provides balanced duration risk management. Current macro indicators are neutral, suggesting VGIT's returns will depend more on carry and roll-down than on a macro-driven rally.
The article discusses the concept of fat tails in financial markets and their impact on portfolio risk. I highlight the importance of understanding drawdowns and volatility when assessing investment strategies. Managing risk requires acknowledging the potential for extreme market events, not just average outcomes.
Market volatility isn't isolating itself to stocks. The bond market has had its fair share of fluctuations.
The credit risk profile for corporate bonds has improved. But given the abundance of market uncertainty, it may be best to stick to Treasuries, or for additional yield, municipal bonds.
With the stock market roiled by uncertainty, bonds have remained resilient. Additionally, with interest rates still relatively high, attractive yield options exist in Treasuries.