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Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 5:00 PM EDT Company Participants Louis Langlois - Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets William Oplinger - President, CEO & Director Molly Beerman - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Christopher LaFemina - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Lawson Winder - BofA Securities, Research Division Timna Tanners - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Carlos de Alba - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Daniel Major - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Alexander Hacking - Citigroup Inc., Research Division Nick Giles - B. Riley Securities, Inc., Research Division John Tumazos - John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Glyn Lawcock - Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited, Research Division William Peterson - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Presentation Operator Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call.
Higher tariff costs on imported aluminum weighed somewhat on third-quarter income, the company said.
AA's Q3 results are set to reveal higher revenues but weaker earnings, as Aluminum gains face Alumina and currency headwinds.
A new deal between the United States and Australia could support the development of a Western rare earths supply chain, reducing reliance on China, analysts at UBS highlight in a note. The two countries signed a critical minerals framework as part of a wider deal to boost defence and technology cooperation, with the initial information pointing to US$8.5 billion in ready-to-go projects, and US$1 billion in funding each from the US and Australia over the next six months.
Besides Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates for Alcoa (AA), review projections for some of its key metrics to gain a deeper understanding of how the company might have fared during the quarter ended September 2025.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA), one of the largest aluminum producers globally, has seen a rebound in 2025 in conjunction with rising aluminum prices and a tighter global supply. Shares have moved back toward the mid-$30s, aided by improving cash flow and cost management; however, uncertainties linger regarding whether the current valuation accurately reflects Alcoa's earnings potential and its leverage to the aluminum market.
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA ) Jefferies Industrials Conference September 4, 2025 10:10 AM EDT Company Participants Molly Beerman - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Christopher LaFemina - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Presentation Christopher LaFemina Senior Equity Research Analyst Hi, everybody. I'm Chris LaFemina from the global metals and mining research team at Jefferies.
How Trump's aluminum tariffs hurt a U.S. aluminum company.
Alcoa posted sharp sequential declines in EBITDA and Net Income for 2Q2025, deepening the significant uncertainty surrounding potential increases in U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports. Valuation multiples are attractive and debt is manageable, yet my DCF model shows the stock is trading near fair value with limited upside at current prices. The biggest risk is the unresolved US trade policy, which could squeeze margins and trigger a global recession, hurting aluminum demand and prices.
There is a lot of noise in the stock market, distracting investors from what really matters: the fundamentals. There is no use in trying to follow the sentiment and optimism when the S&P 500 index is trading near its all-time high levels, since this is typically where underlying drivers become more sensitive and vital, making it harder for portfolios to perform properly.
Alcoa's Q2 FY2025 results showed revenue beat, but significant EPS decline due to lower alumina prices and sharply higher U.S. Section 232 tariffs. The primary issue is the massive impact of U.S. tariffs, which are expected to surge from a $95 million cost in Q2 to $215 million in Q3. The doubling of Section 232 tariffs to 50% will likely cause margin leakage and demand disruptions, posing long-term threats to Alcoa's U.S. market share.