Behind The (Revised) Curve
U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.
Replacing AGG With 2 ETFs That Cost At Least 8× More Can Make Sense
Some define AGG as a free ETF, considering an expense ratio of 0.03% and spreads and NAV deviation at their minimums. And it is the benchmark of the market in the intermediate‑maturity segment, just as the S&P 500 is for equities. And yet I believe fully passive management risks missing value, unlike the equity market, well served by passive funds.
Trade War Redux
U.S. equity markets retreated from record highs this week after the White House reignited its tariff offensive with a wave of aggressive levies and additional punitive threats. While inflation data has indicated that the 10% tariffs were efficiently absorbed, the pivot back towards Liberation Day tariff levels raises concern that recent deflationary offsets may be overwhelmed. After closing at record highs for two straight weeks, the S&P 500 retreated by 0.3% this past week, trading in a relatively tight trading range as investors geared up for earnings season.
5 Most-Loved ETFs of Last Week
Bond ETFs like AGG and SGOV led inflows last week as Treasury yields dropped and equity ETFs saw outflows.
SCCR May Be Better Than AGG, But It's Too Soon To Tell
For most investors, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF is the gold standard of bond investing, and constitutes the entirety of many investors' bond allocations. The Schwab Core Bond ETF aims to provide a better, more informed allocation to bonds than AGG. It does this with an increased allocation to municipal bonds, longer effective duration, and active selection of corporate bonds.
Powell On The Hot Seat
US equity markets steadied this past week while bond markets rallied as investors parsed a surprisingly solid slate of economic data and a decent start to corporate earnings season. Early week gains were pared following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs and the reluctance of the Fed to step in to support markets. The hawkish comments sparked a series of blistering critiques by President Trump, accusing the Fed Chair of "playing politics" and posting that his "termination cannot come fast enough."
AGG: Dollar Recycling System Halt May Trigger Largest Ever Bond Market Crash
The recent crash in AGG and other bonds and a declining US dollar suggest a significant repricing for debt monetization risk. Foreign selling of US Treasuries, particularly by countries like China, is potentially driving this shift, indicating a potential long-term collapse of the US dollar recycling system. The correlation shifts between AGG, the US dollar, and equities highlight foreign activity's critical role in the bond market's changes, ending AGG's historically inverse correlation to stocks.
Look to This ETF Income Suite Amid Volatile Markets
Market volatility remains pronounced as of midday trading on Friday as investors digest rapidly shifting global trade dynamics. Advisors and investors looking to potentially harness volatility for income would do well to consider the NEOS options-based ETF suite this year.
AGG: De-Risking With Investment Grade Bonds
Trump tariffs likely to disrupt trade, hit employment, and prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, benefiting bonds over equities in the short to medium term. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF offers diversified exposure to US investment grade bonds, with low expense ratio and strong risk-adjusted returns. AGG's holdings include US Treasuries, Mortgage Backed Securities, and corporate credit, making it a stable choice amidst market volatility.
Countdown To Tariff Day
Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.
ETF Prime: Murphy Highlights 5 ETF Categories Benefiting in Market Turmoil
On this week's episode of ETF Prime, host Nate Geraci and VettaFi Investment Strategist Cinthia Murphy explore five ETF categories potentially benefiting from recent market turmoil. Later, Geraci welcomes industry veteran Tom Lydon to discuss the current ETF landscape.
Investors Bought These 5 U.S. Fixed Income ETFs in February
U.S. fixed income ETFs garnered strong flows in February, uncovering insights into investor behavior and risk appetite in 2025. The $1.6 trillion U.S. fixed income ETF segment took in $31 billion in net flows in February, bringing year-to-date flows to $59 billion as of the end of the month.
