Argentina equities' strength, driven by a pro-capitalist government, have made ARGT the best-performing country ETF in 2024, attracting record inflows. ARGT's growth story is compelling despite its 0.59% expense ratio and high volatility, with a forward P/E of 16 (per the issuer) and a 19% EPS growth rate. The ETF's portfolio is highly cyclical, with significant allocations to Consumer Discretionary and Financials, and a notable overweight in Energy.
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has surged nearly 35% in 2024, driven by President Milei's austerity measures and economic reforms. Key holdings like MercadoLibre, YPF Sociedad Anónima, and Argentine banks have significantly contributed to ARGT's performance, reflecting Argentina's economic recovery. Despite the ETF's price appreciation, valuations remain attractive compared to other emerging market peers, and ARGT still offers upside potential.
US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.
With recession concerns easing and Fed rate cut talks rising, Wall Street closed August with renewed optimism.
Over the last couple of years, ARGT has delivered outstanding alpha of 3.5x relative to global markets. Argentina's growth prospects have taken another hit. ARGT's top holding is more exposed to the Brazilian region with over half its revenues coming from there.
Argentine equities have rallied post-election. But valuations remain quite reasonable relative to the improving fundamentals. Low-cost ARGT remains a great play on the structural reform story.
This quarter's 13Fs and insider buys offer vital clues about what the smart money is betting on. Argentina, small caps, Bitcoin, and China are essential market areas to track.