Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.
Bonds have once again become a default play to help hedge against stock market volatility. As renewed recession fears are adding market fluctuations to a typically tepid summer for stocks, bonds are an ideal safe haven, with three options from Vanguard to consider.
Three years ago, we discussed BND, focusing on interest rate risk as the ten-year treasury yield bottomed out. BND has faced negative total returns over the past three years due to rising interest rates, but the outlook has changed. The ten-year yield is near the highest of the past decade, and potential rate cuts means potential for upside.
While investors have been fixated on yields when it comes to bond exposure, the recent volatility could bring them back to fundamentals. Now is as good a time any to add core bond exposure as the equities roller coaster ride gets underway.
Investors continue to pile into bonds ahead of Fed rate cuts, taking advantage of current yields before interest rate cuts take place. That said, fixed income investors looking to add core exposure can mull three options from Vanguard.
The scramble for attaining higher yields before central bank rate cuts doesn't mean investors aren't exercising due diligence. In fact, they're eschewing risky debt and opting for higher-quality options, according to the Financial Times.
Investors continue to pile into bond funds, looking to add yield now before the Federal Reserve starts instituting rate cuts. Vanguard has both a passive and active option to get core bond exposure as well as yield.
Investing can be very complicated and confusing, which is why some people find it overwhelming. Looked at in a different light, investing can be fairly simple -- as simple as owning two exchange-traded funds.
As services inflation has collapsed, I must revise my previous bearish stance on BND, as an inflationary rebound now appears unlikely. With job growth potentially overstated and full-time employment falling, the US appears likely headed into a period of much higher unemployment and lower consumer spending. Given debt, demographic, infrastructure, and geopolitical issues, I still expect higher long-term inflation, to the detriment of BND.
The equity risk premium is 3.3%, historically low, which suggests that stocks are turning expensive compared to bonds. I have a buy rating on BND as a long-term core fixed-income holding, given its low expense ratio and high liquidity. Technical momentum for BND has improved, with potential resistance at $75 and a bullish upside target to $82 if a breakout takes place.
Cooling prices during the month of May are fueling bullish bets on bonds despite the latest Fed-speak to tamp down any notions of successive rate cuts at a rapid cadence. In the meantime, it could be an opportune time to take advantage of core bond exposure now before a potential rally.
Incoming economic data could finally push the U.S. Federal Reserve over the edge when it comes to cutting interest rates. As such, bonds have been pushing higher as more signs point to central bank easing.