Latin American equities have quietly become one of the strongest regional trades of 2026, and three exchange-traded funds capture the move from very different angles.
I rate the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF a BUY, citing Brazil's monetary easing and favorable global trade realignment. EWZ benefits from Brazil's deepening trade ties with China and the EU, structural export growth, and a dividend yield of 4.2%. Monetary policy easing is a near-term catalyst, while the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement offers a generational export opportunity.
Most U.S.-listed emerging market ETFs have spent the past year treading water or losing ground.
I am raising iShares MSCI Brazil ETF from hold to buy, citing strong momentum and favorable geopolitical dynamics. EWZ benefits from U.S. national security strategy shifts, anticipated American influence in Brazil's 2026 election, and commodity-driven tailwinds. Despite Brazil's rising debt and political risks, EWZ offers a substantial margin of safety with attractive risk-return, even in a worst-case scenario.
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF's 2025 rally was driven by global flows, USD weakness, and carry—not by domestic growth or fiscal reform. Even after the re-rating, EWZ remains attractive versus developed markets, with high real carry anchoring the BRL and dividends supporting total returns. The 2026 upside depends less on Brazil “improving” and more on fiscal risk staying contained while global liquidity and political optionality do the work.
I maintain a Hold rating on EWZ and other ETFs tracking Brazilian indices, citing unattractive risk-return for long-term investors. Recent gains in EWZ are attributed to global factors like Fed rate cuts, not domestic macroeconomic improvements. Brazil's political landscape shifted as Jair Bolsonaro supports his son for 2026, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF remains an attractive play for 2025, driven by BRL appreciation against the USD and appealing valuations. High-interest rates in Brazil and lower interest rates in the U.S. attract foreign capital, supporting inflows into stocks. Brazilian companies should continue to benefit from lower costs on dollar-denominated debt, improving earnings.
I'm adopting a bullish stance on EWZ, supported by FX tailwinds, attractive valuations, and a potential stabilization of the Selic rate, despite ongoing fiscal and political risks. The recent rally in Brazilian equities has been driven more by dollar depreciation and foreign inflows than by local economic progress. EWZ offers efficient exposure to Brazil with a high dividend yield, but has high concentration in a few stocks and above-average volatility.
Brazil's Central Bank hiked interest rates by 0.25% to 15%, reaching the highest level since 2006. Lula's expansionary fiscal policies clash with contractionary monetary efforts, fueling inflation. Political uncertainty ahead of 2026 elections adds volatility. Market eyes opposition candidate Tarcísio de Freitas.
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF underperforms its top holdings due to index concentration and inclusion of underperforming stocks, making it less attractive long-term. Stock picking in Brazil offers better risk/reward by focusing on quality companies and avoiding structurally weak or overvalued names. I rate EWZ as 'hold'—it's practical for basic EM exposure, but direct stock selection is preferable for those familiar with the market.
Brazil's private domestic sector is supported by government deficit spending and private credit but faces a drain from the external sector. The stock market has been stagnant since 2009, but ETFs offer yields between 3-7% and potential upside if the USD depreciates. Aggregate demand in Brazil is positive at 4% of GDP, yet lower than countries like Japan and Germany with over 8%.
Brazil's economy faces challenges with inflation persistently above target and double-digit interest rates, which are impacting the performance of the EWZ amid global trade tensions. The Brazilian economy's reliance on commodities and the financial sector makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and interest rates. Potential benefits from U.S. tariffs include preferential market access and increased trade with China, but risks like capital flight and higher domestic prices persist.