Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF is a fund with a 0.25% TER, very liquid, which I personally appreciate for short/medium-term operations. It can be placed within 3 dimensions (equity-like, safe asset haven-like, and on-chain). The macro context and the on-chain one play in favor of a bullish thesis, in my view.
FBTC is among the most liquid and tightest bid/ask spread spot ETFs on BTC, but not the cheapest. This makes it suitable for faster trading contexts and sets it apart from solutions like BTC or HODL. I remain bullish because Bitcoin is showing increasing alignment with risk-on assets (like the Nasdaq), and less with safe haven assets like gold.
FBTC hits a 52-week high, surging 129% from its low, fueled by Bitcoin momentum and rising institutional demand.
FBTC made a new all-time high this week. The divergence from other risk assets suggests the move was driven by the Moody's downgrade. The downgrade reminds everyone why crypto is so appealing, but it is not likely to create a sustained divergence as the findings are not new.
My early-February call in Bitcoin and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF was poorly timed, but recent ETF inflows suggest improving investor demand for BTC. April's on-chain data shows a decline in Bitcoin's Monthly Active Addresses, indicating a dwindling user base, partly due to ETF adoption. Bitcoin mining sector faces profitability challenges despite high BTC prices, with global hash rate growth and low fees impacting long-term security and decentralization.
Bitcoin's resilience amid recent market turmoil suggests a potential rally, with strong support from stabilizing Bitcoin flows and bullish defense levels. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF offers superior Bitcoin exposure, competitive fees, and self-custody, making it an attractive investment vehicle. Positive on-chain net flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly FBTC and ARKB, maintain upward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin's network usage has fallen in recent months as measured by daily active addresses, transaction fees, and broad wallet address growth. Network usage declines of this magnitude have historically come during Bitcoin's euphoric phase at the end of halving cycle rallies. Demand from spot ETFs and public companies like MicroStrategy does not appear to be slowing down. Year to date, Bitcoin has accounted for 82% of digital asset capital flow.
Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF offers superior Bitcoin exposure and minimizes security risks by using in-house custodial services, unlike most other Bitcoin ETFs. FBTC provides maximum Bitcoin exposure per share, outperforming peers, making it a top choice for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure through ETFs. The fund's shares outstanding are managed well versus Fidelity's Bitcoin treasury making this a superior ETF compared to other Bitcoin ETFs.
With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund is among the most prominent ETFs approved in 2024. I compare this fund to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. FBTC boasts strong marketing support from Fidelity, a competitive 0.25% expense ratio, and AUM of $19.63 billion. However, its liquidity lags behind IBIT, with a higher average bid/ask spread. IBIT benefits from a "virtuous cycle," where its superior liquidity attracts frequent traders, enhancing its spread. In contrast, FBTC experiences a "vicious cycle," with declining trading activity.
Recent USDJPY carry trade sell-off highlighted liquidity risks, but Bitcoin's recovery indicates market overreaction. A repeat of the situation doesn't look likely as it won't come as such a big surprise. Bitcoin is consolidating near its all-time high, showing a bullish cup and handle pattern. A breakout should be setting up into the end of the year.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen impressive inflows and institutional investments since launch, with daily inflows majorly outpacing the total daily produced BTC on the Bitcoin network since the halving. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF stands out with experience in crypto-focused products, self-custody, low expense ratio, and strong infrastructure for Bitcoin investing. FBTC is emerging as a leader in inflows among spot Bitcoin ETFs, as its low fees, decent liquidity and high on-chain BTC balance attract ample investments into the fund.
Bullish investor sentiment for bitcoin appeared to taper at the midyear point as volatility spiked. Fidelity's digital asset research director dove into the most prominent trends to watch regarding bitcoin at the midyear point.