IEMG is outperforming the S&P 500 YTD, with a 21% return versus 8%, and I reiterate my buy rating. The ETF offers broad, low-cost emerging market exposure, attractive valuation at 13.7x earnings, and a solid 3%+ dividend yield. Technical momentum is strong, with a recent breakout above $59 and a bullish trend targeting $70 in 2025.
The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF gives investors access to emerging markets with a portfolio of 2700+ stocks that includes companies from all market capitalizations. While the fund has had brief periods of impressive gains, it has only returned 9.6% in cumulative capital appreciation over the last 10 years. IEMG is heavily weighted in Asian stocks. Stocks from China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea make up almost 75% of the fund's portfolio.
IEMG's valuation is fair, but its earnings growth rate is decelerating through 2026, making it less attractive compared to the S&P 500. The fund's lower exposure to the technology sector and potential tariffs from the new Trump administration add to its weaker growth outlook. Currency risk is significant for IEMG, as a strong U.S. dollar negatively impacts its price performance.
I upgrade IEMG from hold to buy due to low valuations, potential dollar weakness, and strong technical indicators. Despite a 19% return, IEMG lags the S&P 500 but may benefit from China's stimulus and India's growth. IEMG offers a low expense ratio, solid dividend yield, and potential foreign tax credit, making it ideal for long-term investors.
Emerging market ETFs soared to a two-and-a-half-year high, driven by new Chinese stimulus, a big Fed rate cut and hopes of further easing, and a weak dollar.
The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF tracks small, mid, and large-cap emerging market stocks, primarily in China, India, and Taiwan. The ETF has underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in 2024 and over 3, 5, and 10-year timeframes. This underperformance has resulted in IEMG, offering significantly higher earnings and dividend yields relative to the SPY.