After Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) (formerly MicroStrategy) stock cratered 18.4% in the past week and sat 62.5% below where it traded a year ago, the stock saw a sharp reversal on Friday.
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares surged on Friday following the release of the company's fourth quarter earnings report, which showed solid growth in its software and subscription business offset by a massive accounting-driven loss tied to its Bitcoin holdings. Total revenue for Q4 came in at $123 million, up roughly 2% year over year and above the Wall Street consensus of around $119 million, reflecting strength in the company's higher-margin subscription and license revenue.
Strategy NASDAQ: MSTR stock is down a little over 2% after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings following market close on Feb. 5. The report underscored a familiar theme for MSTR investors: quarterly results are now driven far more by Bitcoin accounting than by the company's underlying software operations.
Strategy (MSTR) came out with a quarterly loss of $42.93 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $46.02. This compares to a loss of $3.2 per share a year ago.
Strategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ) now owns 713,502 Bitcoin ( CRYPTO: BTC ) —roughly 3.4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Bitcoin's selloff means Strategy is now losing money on its holdings, which it has been accumulating for nearly six years.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Bitcoin still looks late-cycle and in its drawdown phase. Even if Strategy stock has found an early floor, it is likely to remain range-bound until Bitcoin turns decisively higher. The key Q4 takeaway is dilution: MSTR's Bitcoin holdings rose about 5%, but the fully diluted share count rose nearly 8%, cutting Bitcoin ownership per share by roughly 2.5%. Patience is warranted, with gradual buying in mid-2026 and heavier accumulation closer to a likely late-2026 inflection.
MSTR's Q4 results are likely to have benefited from rising Bitcoin holdings and improved capital access, but valuation and weak software demand remain risks.
The YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF uses a complex options strategy to generate income. The ETF's options approach focuses on just one company: Strategy Inc. Strategy describes itself as "the world's first and largest Bitcoin treasury company.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has seen its Bitcoin-as-a-Treasury strategy falter, eroding the premium that has fueled rapid BTC accumulation via equity issuance. MSTR's market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) has declined to 1.07, making further equity issuance more dilutive and less accretive for BTC purchases. The 10% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred (STRD) offers substantial income with clearly defined risks, though coupon suspension remains a remote concern.
Strategy stock (NASDAQ: MSTR) dropped 10% yesterday to $143, pushing its six-month decline to 64%. Investors are quite aware of the reason: MicroStrategy has transformed from its software company origins into a leveraged Bitcoin treasury entity.