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For the last five years, the annual growth rate has been declining by 10% compared to its flagship app, Tinder, who has been losing subscribers lately. The newly appointed CEO opens new options for growth in a challenging industry. My analysis emphasizes its undervaluation without considering a successful turnaround, and I estimate a value of $56 per share, a 90% premium over its current stock.
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It's the latest leadership shakeup at the dating app as its parent company fends off advances from several activist investors.
Match Group Chief Executive Spencer Rascoff said he plans to step in to lead the company's struggling Tinder unit after the dating app's chief executive said she would resign.
Match Group's Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations, but Tinder's challenges overshadowed growth in Hinge and other emerging products, causing the stock to sell off. Despite macro and micro headwinds in the dating app market, MTCH's global presence and diverse product portfolio position it better than Bumble. The CEO's recent share purchase and potential savings from app store fee changes offer a margin of safety, with a 15% upside potential to $31/share.
Match Group's first-quarter results reflect revenue declines. However, Hinge sees strong growth.
Match Group, Inc. shares plummeted after the company's Q1 results showed continued difficulties at Tinder, its largest brand. Tinder lost 0.4 million paid users sequentially for the second quarter in a row, with MTCH management warning that macro headwinds are leading to further a la carte declines. With growth also decelerating at Hinge, Match will be hard-pressed to meet its targets, calling for a 4-6% growth CAGR through FY27.
Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 8, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Tanny Shelburne - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Spencer Rascoff - Chief Executive Officer Steven Bailey - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Nathan Feather - Morgan Stanley Cory Carpenter - JPMorgan Ygal Arounian - Citi Shweta Khajuria - Wolfe Research John Blackledge - Cowen Curtis Nagle - Bank of America Ben Black - Deutsche Bank Ken Gawrelski - Wells Fargo Jason Helfstein - Oppenheim Chris Kuntarich - UBS Dan Salmon - New Street Research Operator Good day, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode.
The headline numbers for Match Group (MTCH) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended March 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Match Group (MTCH) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.44 per share a year ago.
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH), parent company of the Tinder dating app, saw its stock rising in Thursday's early deals after it reported revenue ahead of forecasts for the March quarter. On top of that, Match – which also owns the Hinge and OkCupid dating apps – confirmed cost cutting plans that will result in 13% of its workforce being dumped.