PayPal (PYPL -0.80%) recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings, and for the most part, the numbers look excellent. However, there were a couple of trouble spots that sent the stock plunging.
PayPal (PYPL -0.80%) shares dropped as much as 13% after the fintech reported solid fourth-quarter results and issued an upbeat outlook on Feb. 4. But the stock is still up almost 30% during the past year as of this writing.
PayPal investors were likely surprised with the post-earnings selloff, but I had already cautioned about not taking the optimism too far. PayPal's shift toward profitable growth shouldn't be mistaken for weakness, although questions about what's next are justified. Management's decision to hold an investor day later this month is timely, which should help to allay investor fears about its growth plans.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. shares dropped 13% despite beating Q4 estimates and announcing a $15 billion buyback plan, due to concerns over unbranded volume growth and branded checkout lagging. Q4 results showed 4% YoY revenue growth and 2% YoY non-GAAP operating income growth, with positive account metrics indicating progress on user engagement. Management's FY 2025 guidance fell short of market expectations, projecting modest growth and $6 billion in share repurchases, highlighting strong cash generation.
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PayPal's recent sell-off is unwarranted; the company continues to deliver strong operational performance, growing top-line revenue, EPS, and FCF while planning significant share repurchases. Despite competitive risks and market overreactions, PayPal remains a profitable business with strong margins, projected to repurchase $6 billion in shares in 2025. PayPal's valuation is attractive compared to peers like Visa and Mastercard, trading at lower multiples despite continued growth in revenue and profitability.
I doubled my PayPal position around $80 today after Wall Street ignored strong earnings and guidance, a buy decision supported by bullish underlying technical trading indicators. PayPal's 8%+ free cash flow yield is compelling, especially with plans to retire 20% of shares over three years, using $19 billion in buyback authorization. PayPal/Venmo's increasing consumer adoption and ease of use make this stock a top pick for digital payments and online banking exposure.
PayPal's Q4 FY2024 results showed solid growth in TPV, revenue, and active accounts, but conservative guidance led to a 13% stock sell-off. Despite the dip, PayPal's fundamentals remain strong with a stable EBIT margin and significant buyback plans, making the stock undervalued. The shift from growth to value is causing investor churn, but the stock's fair value suggests a potential 20-47% upside.
In this video, I will go over PayPal's (PYPL -13.17%) fourth-quarter earnings report. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.
Despite mild positive beats in Q4 results, I have a pessimistic outlook on PayPal due to poor revenue quality via stagnant active account growth and falling transactions per active account. I expect revenue growth challenges to persist in FY25, driven by Braintree renegotiations that would lead to further volume declines in transactions per active account. On the positive side, the Company's credit risk metrics have improved, and the stock trades at a 27% discount to peers on a 1-yr fwd PE basis.
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CNBC's MacKenzie Sigalos joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss PayPal's share drop on weak payment volume.