The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT | TLT Price Prediction) has done something this year that surprises a lot of holders.
Peter Schiff has spent his career predicting bond market trouble. On the latest episode of his podcast he thinks the trouble finally has nowhere left to hide.
The iShares US 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slumped to its lowest level since July 2025 as long-term US government bond yields surged to a 19-year high this week. TLT also plunged as it suffered the biggest weekly outflows in years.
The Federal Reserve has already trimmed its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, leaving the upper bound at 3.75%.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) pays a 4.8% dividend yield backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S.
I have held iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF since late 2023, navigating a frustrating, contracting range amid volatile macro conditions. TLT's price action reflects a persistent tug-of-war between labor market weakness (driving rate cut rallies) and inflation concerns (triggering sell-offs). Recent central bank communication and geopolitical events have reinforced the range, but diminishing effects from rate cuts suggest a potential pattern break ahead.
Alliancebernstein L.P. trimmed its holdings in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) by 5.3% in the third quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 2,665,678 shares of the exchange traded fund's stock after selling 148,946 shares during the quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. owned
U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday as investors awaited February's inflation report and monitored developments on the US-Iran war front.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF offers compelling long-term yields, with U.S. 20-year premiums acknowledging salient risks. TLT's yields present relative value versus those of other developed nations. I expect inflation to re-anchor and institutional demand for long-dated Treasuries to increase in 2026, supporting TLT performance.
Long-term bonds are entering a new era. With a new Federal Reserve Chair and uncertainty around the next direction of interest rates, investors can't rely on predictions alone.
The broader market is sending a clear signal as speculative assets like cryptocurrencies have taken a dive.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF offers compelling risk-reward due to high term premium driving elevated long-term Treasury yields. Long-term Treasury yields are now on par with mid-term high-grade corporates despite superior liquidity and default risk. Even a slight uptick in risk aversion could cause the TLT to rise while corporate bonds fall.